“Keep a helmet on and keep your powder dry.”
Those words just drifted down the hall to me as Roger Scott wrapped up his daily VIP session in the office next door.
I can’t think of any better advice to offer you in this newsletter.
I’ll admit: I’m shocked by the whipsaw today.
I knew yesterday was fueled by irrational exuberance, I even thought we might see a pullback today, but not to this extent. Not to the point where, as I’m writing this, we’re about 100 ticks from limit down on the S&P 500.
And I’m not the only one…
Here’s a little behind the scenes chat I had with Nate this afternoon:
It’s hard to blame Nate or Roger or anyone for not knowing the exact moves to make in a market like this because, to be honest, there’s never been a market like this.
There are comparisons between this market and COVID, this market and 2008, this market and 1987…
But all those comparisons fall flat somewhere.
The truth is, we’ve never seen anything quite like this.
And the only road forward is one where you take every step with caution. Where you “keep a helmet on and keep your powder dry.”
Shrink your trade size, limit your time exposure. Sell premium if you can afford to.
Use strategies that don’t rely on predictable market moves to make money. Follow Nate or Geof’s pairs trades, for that matter.
Or, to quote Geof Smith: “Buy gold and short crude.”
I’m going to work on bringing together more events to help you navigate these markets.
Stay smart and stay safe out there.
To your prosperity,
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