الخميس، 10 أبريل 2025

Bear Market Survival 101

Don Kaufman here.

Welcome to the wildest trading environment many of you have ever seen.

If you think you've been thrown into the deep end without a life vest, well, you're not alone.

The markets are in full "Mr. Toad's Wild Ride" mode, and if you're not careful, this volatility could chew you up, spit you out, and laugh while you're crying in the corner.

But you're here, and that means you're ready to fight. Good—because surviving this chaos isn't about being lucky or blindly following news headlines.

It's about strategy, discipline, and understanding what the hell is really going on.

Let's break it all down.

Volatility Is the Market Now—Stop Fighting It

First things first: this isn't your average market. The volatility we're seeing right now is next level, and it's not going away anytime soon. Yesterday, the S&P 500 rallied 10%—an insane 500-point move. Today? It's giving much of it back with a vengeance.

Here's the deal: volatility doesn't just appear out of nowhere. It feeds on itself. Trades are driving the market now, not the news.

Sure, tweets and CPI numbers might trigger moves, but the underlying cause is positioning.

Big firms are getting pressed on their trades, liquidity is drying up, and it's creating a feedback loop.

Think of it like this: the market isn't a calm river anymore. It's a raging white-water rapid, and if you don't know how to navigate it, you're going to get tossed.

Relief Rallies Are Traps—Don't Get Fooled

Let's talk about yesterday's 10% rally. You might've seen the green on your screen and thought, "Finally, we're out of the woods!" Hate to break it to you, but that kind of move isn't a sign of safety—it's a giant red flag.

Historically, the biggest up-days happen during bear markets. Why? Because volatility is off the charts.

Take 2008, for example. Two of the largest rallies in market history happened during the financial crisis, and they didn't signal the end of the pain—they were just the market catching its breath before the next gut punch.

So, what does this mean for us?

Don't chase the rally.

Use it as an opportunity to adjust your positions, manage risk, and scale back if you're overexposed. Relief rallies are traps for the inexperienced. Don't fall for it.

The Bond Market Is Broken (And That's a Big Deal)

You can't talk about this market without talking about the bond market. And let me be blunt—it's broken.

Yesterday, the bond market was trading at volumes that shouldn't even make sense. Treasury products were doing as much volume as the S&P futures. That's not normal. When bonds are trading like they're penny stocks, you know something's off.

Here's the thing: the bond market is the backbone of the financial system.

When it's unstable, everything else starts to wobble. And right now, it's wobbling hard. Big firms are getting squeezed, positions are being unwound, and liquidity is drying up.

If you're ignoring what's happening in the bond market, you're missing the bigger picture.

Stop Reacting to News—It's Not Helping You

You know what's not going to save you? Chasing news headlines.

Yesterday, we got news of a 90-day reprieve on tariffs. Big whoop. The market popped for five minutes and then forgot all about it. Why? Because the news isn't driving this market anymore. It's all about positioning, liquidity, and volatility.

If you're still trading based on tweets or press releases, you're already dead. You need to focus on what the market is actually doing—not what the headlines are saying.

The Biggest Lesson: Manage Your Risk Like a Pro

If you take one thing away from this, let it be this: risk management is everything.

You can't control the market, but you can control how much you lose. That's why I've been hammering on this all week—if you don't love your positions, get out.

Yesterday's rally was your golden opportunity to clean house and cut the dead weight from your portfolio.

Here's what I'm doing:

Position sizing: Keep it small. Don't go all-in on anything right now.
Volatility trades: Use spreads and hedges to profit from the chaos without exposing yourself to directional risk.
Patience: This is a marathon, not a sprint. You don't need to trade every day to win.

And let me say this loud and clear: Don't let your ego get in the way. If you're wrong, admit it, cut the loss, and move on. The market doesn't care about your feelings.

Why Surviving Now Will Make You a Better Trader

Bear markets are brutal, but they're also the ultimate teacher. If you can survive this, you'll come out the other side a stronger, smarter trader. You'll learn how to manage risk, stay disciplined, and trade in the most unforgiving conditions.

That's why I'm calling this a "Bear Market Survival Guide." It's not about thriving right now—it's about surviving. Because once the dust settles, the traders who kept their heads on straight will be the ones taking advantage of the opportunities that follow.

Embrace the Chaos

This market is nuts. There's no sugarcoating it. But that doesn't mean you should run for the hills.

With the right mindset and strategy, you can navigate this chaos and come out on top.

Remember:

Volatility is here to stay—use it to your advantage.
Don't trust relief rallies—they're traps.
Manage your risk like your trading life depends on it (because it does).
Ignore the noise and focus on the big picture.

Surviving a bear market isn't easy, but it's doable. Stay disciplined, stay focused, and keep your head in the game.

Now, let's get back out there and trade like pros.

To your success,

Don Kaufman

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