This market’s got a short memory.
Just a few days ago, we were staring at an 800+ point drop in the S&P… then after yesterday’s record rally, folks were acting like we’re out of the woods.
I wasn’t sure then and I’m definitely not sure now.
See, we kicked off the month of April at 5644 on the S&P futures — and within five trading days, we had dropped as low as 4832. That’s a massive 812 point selloff. Big one.
Now we’ve bounced a bit, sure — but as I said in today’s Market Radar session, we’re still down on the month.
The way I see it, until we get back above that 5644 level, every rally is still suspect.
That’s the line I’m watching.
In fact, overnight, I was watching the S&P futures sell off and despite the huge record-breaking rally we had yesterday, I suspected — before US markets even opened — that today might be a red candle day.
See, I saw the S&P futures start fading during the overnight session — European markets weren’t looking great.
Price action looked shaky, and sure enough, we rolled over right at the 23.6% retracement, blew through the 38.2%, and landed at the 50%.
That’s where we bounced — but this kind of back-and-forth is exactly what I was talking about in yesterday’s newsletter, when I said “the whipsaws aren’t over yet.”
And the VIX backs that up.
In fact, the VXX — an ETF that tracks short-term VIX futures — recently spiked as high as 91, one of the sharpest volatility surges we’ve seen in ages.
Now it’s hanging in the 80s — not the place you want it if you’re trying to bet big on a long-term rally.
The 14-day average range on the S&P right now? 210 points. That’s up from 90 just two weeks ago.
200 and 300 point days are just not normal. This is a volatile market. And when that’s the case, I don’t chase green candles.
I stay sharp. I watch my levels. And I trade small, tight, and smart.
I just covered this — along with the key Fibonacci zones I’m watching and what I think comes next — in today’s Market Radar.
Watch the full session here — and don’t forget to join my FREE Telegram channel to get notified when I’m going live.
Stay sharp,
—Geof Smith
P.S. Have you seen this hot energy tip?
ليست هناك تعليقات:
إرسال تعليق