الأربعاء، 5 فبراير 2025

The One BIG Red Flag You Should Never Ignore in a Market Downturn

And GOOGL’s earnings reaction
 
   
     
GOOGL Earnings Reaction
 
 
First, don’t miss today’s Daily Chart Setup trade idea down lower in this newsletter…

GOOGL (aka Alphabet or Google) reported earnings after the close yesterday. The chart was sitting at the upside target zone and I warned that we might see a sizable pullback. Well, so far the reaction was down. We will look at it during the open.


Come join me as we dive in and see what’s moving!

Plus, as always, we have stocks popping and dropping so come find out what is moving this morning as I look for stocks and do some live premarket analysis on SPX, SPY, NDX, QQQ, Russell, IWM and other stocks that are potential plays for the day. 

 
— — — 
 
The One BIG Red Flag You Should Never Ignore in a Market Downturn

When it comes to spotting a market crash, it’s not always the charts that give the first warning. The real red flag? Mass layoffs.

I’m not talking about a single company cutting a few thousand jobs. That happens all the time. The real danger comes when you see multiple large companies announcing layoffs — 10,000, 20,000, even 30,000 jobs — within a few days of each other. That’s when you know something bigger is happening.

CEOs will call it “restructuring” or “cost-cutting,” but when layoffs start hitting across different sectors — from Information Technology (XLK) to Consumer Discretionary (XLY) — it’s a sign that companies are bracing for more than just a rough quarter. 

They’re preparing for a sustained downturn.

During the 2008 financial crisis, this exact pattern played out. Companies across sectors slashed tens of thousands of jobs in quick succession. By the time most traders noticed, the market was already in freefall.

These layoffs don’t just signal an immediate sell-off — they often lead to deeper corrections. The initial reaction might push the market down 5% or 10%, but if layoffs continue, you could be looking at a 20% or 30% decline before things stabilize.

So what should you do when you start seeing these signs? 

Tighten up your positions. Reduce exposure to high-risk trades and consider adding protective puts on broad indexes like the S&P 500 (SPY) or the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). Shift some of your portfolio into defensive sectors like Utilities (XLU) or Consumer Staples (XLP).

And don’t assume the market will bounce right back. Layoffs of this scale are a clear signal that companies expect prolonged pain — not just a temporary setback.

Charts can show you a lot, but when it comes to identifying a serious market downturn, nothing beats paying attention to what’s happening in the real world. 

When the pink slips start flying, it’s time to buckle up.

Now be sure to join me live at 9:15 a.m. ET for “Morning Monster,” my market-open livestream on YouTube!

 
 
‘Morning Monster’ Is Starting NOW!
I’m also live at 5 p.m. ET on Tuesdays for “30 Minutes of Awesome” — bring your ticker and I’ll analyze it in real time!

And be sure to hit that Subscribe button on my YouTube page!
_____________________________________________________
How Prep for the Coming Chaos
 
 
Look, the S&P 500 didn’t just plunge by 35% all of a sudden in 2020…

The signs were there… but most folks shrugged it off.

But me? I followed it closely and it helped me avoid the market crash — even turning $250k into $1.4 MILLION in less than a month of trading.

Now, after years of total silence, the same signs are showing up again…

And if it plays out just like it did in 2020, when the S&P 500 saw one of its greatest drops in history, we could see the markets plummet even more.

But you don’t need to panic about this market chaos hitting you unawares…

Because at 4 p.m. ET today, Feb. 5, I’ll be in the LIVE room to show you how you can protect your portfolio from taking a nose dive…

And you’ll also see how you can position yourself to turn the potential market chaos into your advantage.

I can’t guarantee wins or prevent losses, but this could be one of the best events you’ll attend this year…

 
 
Grab Your Seat Right Here!
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Today’s Daily Chart Setup: MercadoLibre (MELI)  
 
 
 

This idea came directly from my Daily Chart Setup that automatically signals potential plays. 
 
MELI is a new potential entry. Target: 2219.33 Stop below: 1645.0
 
MELI has a historical win rate of 83.33%
 
MELI has a profit factor of 4.545
 
MELI trades last 14 trading days on average over 12 trades since 2007.
 
See the secret behind these signals here!

This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. Always remember that past performance is not indicative of future results.


How the Daily Chart Setup Works

Here’s a more detailed description of how the pattern triggers:
 
1. The price breaks upward through the orange Market Roadmap Line. 

2. Then the price goes up and down while staying above the line. Eventually, it comes down to touch the line again — this could take days, weeks or even months. 

3. Once it touches the line and starts moving back up, that signals an entry. 

I use Fibonacci levels for for profit targets and stop losses, and these two tools combined have helped me achieve a 77% win rate over the past six-plus years!

You can grab my Market Roadmap Indicator here for just $5 — less than a cup of coffee at most places!
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading

I host my “Morning Monster” livestream at 9:15 a.m. ET each weekday on YouTube, and then “30 Minutes of Awesome” at 5 p.m. ET each Tuesday!

Please check out my channel and hit that Subscribe button!

I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.

I've been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it's the Eagle Scout in me. 


*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. 
   
 

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