More Articles | Free Reports | Premium Services There was a lot of chatter on Wall Street last week… There always is… But this time tongues were wagging about the so-called “Mar-a-Lago Accord.” That’s a riff on the 1985 Plaza Accord and the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement – two international currency deals that restructured the global economic order. The idea is from a November 2024 paper that Harvard economist and President Trump’s nominee to lead the White Council of Economic Advisors, Stephen Miran wrote. The goal is to weaken the dollar and cut America’s borrowing costs. That would involve forcing her creditors to swap their interest-bearing Treasury bonds for 100-year, zero-interest bonds. This would upend the financial order… It would impact every American saver and investor. So, while this is only an idea right now… we must understand what’s going on. President Trump is clearly in the mood for making radical changes. And this would – theoretically, at least – solve a lot of problems that he wants to fix. It would also ignite a stock market melt-up… and eventual meltdown… as we’ll discuss today. And if you have any questions about any of this, please email them to me at feedback@thefreeportsociety.com. This Friday will be my second edition of our Ask Me Anything Freeport Navigators. I’ll be sure to answer your questions then. Just remember that I can’t give any personalized investment advice. Let’s dive in… “Low-Interest Rate Guy” We know that Trump is a “low-interest rate guy,” as he likes to put it. We also know that he’d prefer a weaker dollar to make U.S. exports more competitive. That’s been a major obsession of his for decades. If exports are priced in a cheaper dollar, that would be a boon to U.S. manufacturers who sell their goods overseas. And we know that the $36 trillion debt is starting to be a big problem. Uncle Sam will shell out close to $1 trillion in interest expense this year, which is more than we spend on our military. And it only gets higher after that. But what if all three of those issues could be addressed in a single move? That’s what Miran’s plan is all about. It starts with Team Trump strongarming foreign holders of U.S. Treasury bonds to swap out their current bonds for 100-year zero-coupon bonds. Zero-coupon bonds do not make regular cash payments. You profit by buying them at a discount. For example, you might buy one at $90 and then collect $100 once it matures. The effects of this move would cascade through the international financial system. By getting rid of interest payments (via a “coupon” in bond speak) it would make holding U.S. Treasury bonds less attractive to foreigners. Instead of swapping their dollars for these bonds, they would swap them for non-U.S dollar assets. This would lead to a weaker dollar. And given that the 100-year bonds won’t be paid for a century – and with depreciated dollars, no less – it would also drastically reduce America’s debt burden. With the snap of a finger, we get a cheaper dollar and lower interest rates on a big chunk of our debt. What could possibly go wrong? Recommended Link | | Louis Navellier has identified a mathematical pattern that appeared before Microsoft, Dell, Google, and Nvidia exploded. Now it's showing up in a small chip maker. Get the ticker free by clicking here. | | | Move Fast and Break Things Yes, that was a hint of sarcasm in my voice. Any plan that complex would have endless numbers of ways to get FUBARed. U.S. Treasury bonds are the foundation of the global financial system. You disrupt that market at your peril. Let’s look at the mechanics... If foreigners opted to buy fewer U.S. Treasurys, domestic investors would have to take up the slack. Failing that, the Fed would have to step in to directly monetize the debt – what’s known as quantitative easing or QE. This means creating new dollars to pay for the bonds and then holding those bonds on its books. Foreigners hold about 30% of all Treasury debt, so you’re talking about trillions of dollars in bonds shifting from foreign hands to the Fed. That would mean artificially low interest rates… and stronger inflation pressures. And while a weaker dollar makes the price tag for exports more affordable in overseas currency terms, it also means higher prices for imported components. A weaker dollar also means weaker spending power for Americans when they travel abroad. I have my doubts as to whether this idea will become reality. I expect Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent – who’s called for a strong dollar – and Fed boss Jerome Powell to push back hard. But that we’re even talking about it means that a radical shakeup to the dollar regime could be in the works. Respected Wall Street analyst Jim Bianco certainly thinks it’s in the cards. Last Thursday, he held a webinar about it with his clients. And like I said, this kind of bold move will appeal to Trump. He’s made it clear he wants a cheaper dollar and lower interest rates. He’s also made it clear he likes the Silicon Valley ethos of “moving fast and breaking things.” Plus, as we’ve been warning in these pages for more than a year now, we’re living through an Age of Chaos – a time of tumultuous change. The last thing we should expect is a continuation of the status quo. So, what can we do? Recommended Link | | An ultra-rare pattern has emerged in the markets that has only appeared three times going back 125 years. Last time this pattern appeared, backtests show it triggered certain tech stocks to soar thousands of percent over time… while devastating millions of Americans who failed to prepare. Don’t miss our urgent briefing on Thursday, February 27th. Click here to secure your spot. | | | Mar-a-Lago Melt-Up I doubt whether the Mar-a-Lago Accord, if implemented, would be a huge boost to the U.S. economy. The domestic service sector accounts for about 70% of our economy, as measured by GDP. Exports account for only about 11% of the GDP. But moves to chop interest rates and weaken the dollar would be wildly successful in igniting a new melt-up in the stock market. U.S. tech companies – which dominate the S&P 500 now – get about 56% of their revenues from overseas. A weaker dollar would make these earnings more valuable in U.S. currency terms. This translates to higher stock returns. Over the past four decades, the S&P 500 has returned about 5.5% when the dollar is above its long-term average (a strong dollar market) and 9% when the dollar is below its long-term average (a weak dollar market). And we saw what happened in 2020 and 2021, when the Fed dropped rates to zero and bought an extra $5 trillion in bonds via QE. Between the 2020 lows and the 2021 highs, the S&P 500 shot 117% higher. We also saw an explosion in meme stocks, NFTs, and just about anything else that can be traded or gambled on. We know how that ends, of course. Melt-ups always give way to meltdowns. But before they do, they create the opportunity to mint fortunes. Former Fed boss Alan Greenspan first uttered the words “irrational exuberance” in December 1996 to describe the dotcom melt-up. The tech-heavy Nasdaq rocketed another 300% from there before topping in March 2000. And according to colleague Keith Kaplan over at TradeSmith, we could be in for something similar – starting now. TradeSmith uses algorithms to spot repeating patterns in decades worth of stock market data. And it’s spotted a rate pattern that hasn’t been seen in 30 years. It’s only been seen twice before going back to 1900 – in 1966 and 1925. And it signals a strange category of melt-up that creates hyper-exaggerated gains… and losses. As Keith will show folks in his Last Melt-Up webinar, the last time this happened you could have made 9,731% from a leading software company… 28,894% from a robotic visionary… 70,626% from an internet services company… and 91,863% from a consumer electronics stock. But like with all melt-ups, Keith warns that this one will have a hidden danger lurking inside that will devastate folks who aren’t prepared. So, I make sure to clear time in your schedule to watch Keith’s webinar. It kicks off this Thursday, February 27, at 8 p.m. ET. Secure your spot – for free – here. And buckle up! We’re about to witness one of the wildest markets of our lifetimes. To life, liberty, and the pursuit of wealth, |
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