الأربعاء، 9 أبريل 2025

Morning Market Update with TBUZ TV

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Today’s TBUZ TV

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Market Editorial - Chuck Crow

This week started with an ES futures contract opening at 5007.00.  That open was 99.75 points below Friday’s close.  The market dropped, climbed, and dropped again.  In overnight trading the market is moving down again.  

1. DG

Dollar General (DG) traded up to a high at 97.85 on Friday.  It has been tracking down the past two days.  In after hours trading on Tuesday, the market dropped down to 86.85.  It is coming close to our entry at 85.08.  From a trading standpoint, we may be losing the edge on this one.  However from an investment standpoint DG is still out performing the broader market.  The risk now is that this stock could turn lower if it winds up on the other side of the 85.08 number.
 

2. The Broader Market

The market moved down to a low at 4832.00 on Sunday night, and that is not the biggest “problem” this market faces.  The rapid expansion of the daily average range in April has produced a volatile market environment.  On Tuesday April 1, the range of the ES Futures was 94.50.  On Wednesday April 2, the range was 207.00 points.  The range on April 3 was 149.50 points, and the range on April 4 was 361.00 points.  The market followed that up with an April 7 range of 454.50.  On April 8 the market had another big day with a range of 364.75.  The 14 day average range at the end of March was 98 points.  The 14 day average range after April 8 is 167.50.  That level of aggressive increase in range is emblematic of the chaotic nature of the current market.  This week’s low at 4832.00 is the new breaking point.  The longer the market can stay above that low the more likely it is that the market can settle down.  What we are truly looking for in the market is less a change in direction, and more a change in aggression.  We want to see that average range start falling back down towards the 98 points that we had at the end of March.  In truth, even that average range was a bit aggressive.  The market has been ramping up the chaos for the past few weeks, and it culminated with the start of April.  There are of course other considerations, but as far as the trading perspective is concerned it's all about containing the chaos until it becomes about something else.

News for the Week





Probabilities for the Week




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