Dr. Copper is suddenly extremely worried. Longtime readers of Liberty Through Wealth know that I watch the price of copper because, historically, it has proved to be an accurate barometer of the health of the economy and where it's headed. And because economic growth drives corporate earnings, copper has also been a good guide for investors, as to whether their appropriate investing stance should be "risk on" or "risk off." In fact, the red metal has been so accurate in predicting the future that it earned the nickname "Dr. Copper" a long time ago - because it seems to have a Ph.D. in economics. It's not just a quaint Wall Street adage either. A statistical analysis by Dutch investment bank ABN AMRO found a strong correlation between the price of copper and global trade volumes, economic growth in both China and the U.S., and prices of other commodities. And copper's price is a leading (not lagging) indicator, as the industrial metal must be purchased long before factories, homes, cars, semiconductors, and electrical equipment - among many other products - can be produced. So in bidding the price of copper up or down, markets are usually anticipating broader economic activity. Just a few weeks ago, copper prices were soaring. At the end of March, one pound of copper hit $5.30, up 32% for the year and a new record. But that rapid price change was deceptive. The price of copper was far higher in the U.S. than in other countries, reflecting the 25% tariff the White House has been threatening to slap on the commodity. Here's what the price chart looked like on March 31... |
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