| | | | | Today’s TBUZ TV
What a week it has been. The market has been under pressure all week long. Listen to today's TBUZ TV for my key levels in the market.
"Life is a succession of lessons which must be lived to be understood." — Helen Keller
This Week at DTI
Friday
- 3pm ET - Weekly Wrap Up (Register) Market Review - Chuck Crow
In the next few lines, I will likely tell you how the bulls can steal a march on this upcoming Friday. I may even tell you what the bears need to see. Both are derived from valid analysis, and yet neither changes the fact that Thursday’s low at 5720.00 is below the 4th Quarter low of 2024. In fact, on Thursday the ES futures traded to a lower low than the previous day, a lower low than the previous week, a lower low than the previous month, and a lower low than the previous quarter. I suppose it would be charitable to state that the low is not in fact below the low of the previous year at 4702.00, but I’m not sure the bulls are looking for that sort of charity on Friday.
The bullish argument:
While it is a given that we have traded below the 4th Quarter low, and that can not be taken away; it is equally valid to point out that in February the ES futures traded above the 4th Quarter high, and that too can not be taken away. Thus we are left without an outside bar. There is nothing that can happen between now and the end of March that will change that aspect of the market. An outside bar typically represents both indecision and volatility. If you accept that the market is volatile then you also have to accept that it can and will change. The high on March 6 was 5853.50. If the market were to trade above that price on March 7, then the daily downtrend would be broken. If that seems too much, then all the market needs to do is close at or near the March 7 high tomorrow, and then next week on Monday, March 10, breaking the high of the previous day is that much easier. What the bulls would really like to see is a small range day, or at least a below average range day. The 20 day average range of the ES futures at the close on March 6 is 85.83 points.
The bearish argument:
While there is no denying the February high, this is March. At present time the low of March is below the February low, and the high of March is below the February high. The daily, weekly and month trends are pointing down. If the market continues to expand the ranges and push lower then that trend should continue. The bears will want to see the market trade below 5720.00 on Friday, and close near that new low. If that were to occur then next week could start with another extension of the down trend. In addition, while the 4702.00 low of 2024 is far away, if the ES futures move below 5588.00 then they move into the range of the first half of 2024. 5588.00 is only 132 points away from Thursday’s low.
In Conclusion:
The outside bar of the 1st quarter represents indecision, and the volatile nature of the current market allows for multiple views on what happens next. This market still has a story to tell, and everything is in play.
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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