Dear Reader,
Warnings are starting to emerge in the market and the economy, so in today's video I jump right into what's going on and what you should do now:
This week JPMorgan came out and said they're going to see lower profits in net interest income because of the Fed's anticipation of lowering rates.
As we discussed last week, when the Fed lowers rates, the amount of money banks can charge people for loans also goes down, so the spread gets tighter, meaning that their bank profits end up going down.
And JPMorgan shares dropped 7% after they announced that their net interest income, the income that they make from lending money, is getting compressed.
The picture's starting to emerge of the warnings that we've been talking about for the past 60 days…
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We've had a heck of a bull market here – I mean we've sold more stocks across our services than we have ever in the history of our company.
The reason we've sold is that we've been on a great bull run!
The economy's going great – everything's been terrific.
But the conversation has shifted…
A few months ago, the conversation was:
"How high can it go!?
"AI's gonna change the world!
"This is the greatest job market ever!
"Amazing! It's strong, strong, strong!"
But now the conversation has completely shifted to:
"Will the Fed lower rates?
"What will the recession look like?
"Is the job market softening?
"Why are commodity prices going down – oil, gas, copper?"
I'll tell you why:
Prices of these commodities start to drop when an economy gets weaker because big builders stop building buildings…
Companies stop buying copper for their chips…
People stop using oil and gas for their construction projects… etc., etc.
So those are great indicators that the economy is softening, that it's getting weaker.
So the conversation has actually changed.
And we of course anticipated this and talked about it a couple months back which is why we've been preparing clients to clean up, take profits, take in our sails a little bit, play it safe, and take some of these great profits we've been seeing off the table.
We still have bets on the table, which is great…
We're very happy with the positions that we have. We're still opportunistic!
When we see something really special come across the strike zone, we're going to swing.
But we're not chasing anything; we're letting the game come to us.
We're going to be, frankly, crocodiles – under the surface, waiting for prey… waiting for opportunity to come to us, and then we pounce.
Because I'll tell you what – I've never made as much money in any market as I have through bear markets. I love this game – protecting upside, buying the crash.
I put my whole bear market playbook in my new report – if you haven't gotten your copy yet – get it right here.
A bunch of readers have been telling me how helpful it's been for them – the clarity and security they've felt taking these steps – let me know what you think.
Because that's the kind of market that we find ourselves in – a transition.
From outright optimism and crazy bullishness a few months ago, basically, to:
"What is this market going to look like?
"Is there going to be a recession?
"What are the odds of that?
"If there is, how deep is it going to be?"
So – the watchword right now is: be patient, be careful. You don't have to chase everything – we're not in high school anymore.
We can just be patient. We're all older now. We know that good opportunities present themselves with regularity.
It's not the end of the world if we miss something here and there.
Pick the spots that are right for you. Don't do anything you're not comfortable doing.
We run a "better safe than sorry" offense here at Behind the Markets.
I will never apologize for saying, "be careful, let's take some profits, let's pull in our sails a little bit," because look – we're not getting any younger.
You and me – we have worked like dogs to earn the money and save the money that we have.
We have to protect it. That is priority #1. That is how I look at my money, and that is how I look at your money.
We follow the doctor's credo here: First, do no harm.
That is the policy we take at this company. I advise you like I advise myself.
If you haven't downloaded the "playbook," go here now and pick one up. I think you'll be really glad you did.
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