Hey y’all,
I was reading an article this morning about tech CEOs kissing up to Trump, and the number of Silicon Valley titans that are lining up for the inauguration (including Musk, Bezos, Zuckerberg, Cook, and Google’s Sindar Pichai), and it got me thinking…
What is going to be the outcome of Trump’s sudden popularity among Silicon Valley CEOs, led by Eon Musk?
In my head, there are really two things we can see happen with tech CEOs under the new Trump Administration, and to me, it’s an absolute coin flip between what I’d consider the “good” outcome and the “bad.”
We’ve seen hints of both in the weeks building up to Monday’s inauguration, whether it be the furious battle over H1B visas that broke out on Twitter over Christmas or the more recent liberalization (in the classic sense of the word) of fact-checking standards at Zuckerberg’s Meta.
Basically, the “good” version is that Trump’s inauguration represents a real policy shift that reinvigorates innovation and creativity as central American virtues.
In this version, the “America First” agenda would mean that America should strive to out-create, out-innovate, and out-idea its competition on the global stage, making strides in tech, software, cybersecurity, and more.
These CEOs who now suddenly love Trump would make a sincere “vibe shift” away from a regime of censorship and virtue signaling and vie for the President’s affection by focusing their efforts on new tech that makes America stronger, smarter, wealthier, and more secure.
The Administration, in turn, will slash regulations and reward innovation, removing obstacles to these companies’ successes and breakthroughs.
In this halcyon version, you could see a new “golden age” of American innovation that makes Silicon Valley once again the envy of the world.
While it might seem far fetched, I do think that in the duality of Trump, this outcome is possible.
But there’s certainly another, darker possibility looming, too…
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In his farewell address, President Biden warned of a “tech oligarchy” forming in the United States.
While I think that’s overstated, I do believe that the people who get closest to Trump are those who can appeal to his vanity — and those are often the same people who can get away with anything under his watch.
Just think about the controversy around the H1B visas…
Whether you are pro or anti the visas themselves, Elon Musk came out in full-throated support of a policy that is clearly at least a cost-cutting measure for big tech (even if there are positive benefits), and a policy that President Trump has vocally criticized in the past.
Musk’s support caused Trump to flip his position and publicly voice his support for H1Bs, which in turn damaged Trump’s reputation amongst some of his anti-immigration, populist backers (led most vocally by Steve Bannon).
This could be a foretaste of the darker version of a Trump/tech nexus, which would see these tech CEOs cozying up to Trump, and then pushing him on issues that line their pockets without making America stronger.
Those could be expanded visa programs to import cheap labor over American workers, or looser restrictions on working with China and exporting jobs, or a whole host of other outcomes.
These policy shifts would make it cheaper for Big Tech to operate, but they wouldn’t necessarily spur any form of innovation, and would almost certainly result in a drop of quality — think back to Zuckerberg’s recent comments criticizing Apple’s products of the last few years.
While I don’t think the tech oligarchy is as fully-fledged as President Biden alleged in his farewell address, it certainly could solidify over the course of the next four years if President Trump fails to stand on principle and instead bends his will to whatever Tech CEO is brown-nosing the hardest that week.
As I mentioned earlier, I think either outcome is equally likely… but I clearly hope for the former.
One thing is sure: Tech CEOs are going to get richer one way or the other. But if it’s through innovation, everyone benefits. If it’s through policy shifts that enable them to make cheaper products with cheaper labor, it’s bad for Americans, which, at least in theory, goes against everything President Trump campaigned on.
To your prosperity,
Stephen Ground
Editor-in-Chief, ProsperityPub
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