| By Andy Swan Nike’s (NKE) rise to prominence began on the running track – now, it’s trying desperately to win back that very same business. In 1964, track coach Bill Bowerman and athlete Phil Knight founded Blue Ribbon Sports, later renamed Nike. Bowerman’s groundbreaking waffle-patterned sole, inspired by his wife’s waffle iron, became a symbol of innovation in the 1972 Moon Shoe. The company built its name on performance, with releases like the Nike Cortez in 1968 and the Pegasus in 1983 becoming go-to choices for runners of all levels. For decades, Nike dominated running, setting the pace in technology, design, and brand loyalty. But the story is very different today. In Nike’s first fiscal quarter of 2025, revenue plummeted 10.4% year over year to $10.8 billion, marking its steepest drop since the pandemic. Declines in North America and Europe were especially pronounced, with footwear sales down nearly 15%. Its latest earnings report was much of the same. For the second FY25 quarter, announced December 19, Nike revenue suffered an 8% year-over-year decline to $12.4 billion. These numbers reveal a deeper issue: a company that has lost its footing with runners… and competitors have come with a vengeance. Losing Momentum with Runners Nike’s disconnect from runners began with its shift in focus. Once synonymous with functional, reliable performance, the brand pivoted heavily toward lifestyle products and high-profile collaborations. Models like the Vaporfly and Alphafly captured attention among elite athletes and marathoners, but their steep $250-$300 price tags alienated casual runners. Meanwhile, updates to core models like the Pegasus and Vomero felt minor, leaving customers underwhelmed. In the vacuum left by Nike, brands like Hoka (DECK) and On Running (ONON) flourished. Hoka, with its distinctive cushioned midsoles, and On, featuring CloudTec technology, addressed the needs of runners seeking comfort and durability. Brooks doubled down on grassroots campaigns, sponsoring local races and engaging directly with running clubs, earning loyalty from an audience Nike appeared to neglect. Sales data confirms the shift. In 2023, Hoka reported revenue of $1.4 billion, while On Running reached $1.3 billion. Both brands experienced double-digit growth, eating into Nike’s market share. “We’re seeing movement toward brands that runners feel cater to them directly,” noted footwear industry analyst Matt Powell. Unfortunately for Nike, LikeFolio data suggests it isn't making up ground any time soon, falling dead last against those running-shoe peers in website visits: 
Supply Chain Struggles Pandemic-related supply chain issues amplified Nike’s problems. Delayed shipments left retailers and customers frustrated, while competitors managed to maintain consistent inventory. A sporting goods store owner explained, “Nike’s failure to deliver on time cost them space on our shelves. Other brands filled the gap.” Adding to these struggles, Nike’s investment in ventures like the Nikeland metaverse raised eyebrows. 
While innovative, these projects left some critics questioning whether the company had lost sight of its core audience. “Runners want better shoes, not digital spaces,” noted a retail analyst. Nike’s revenue declines have coincided with rising inventory, which increased 7% year over year in the first fiscal quarter of 2025. Retail partners expressed concern about unsold stock, which strained relationships further. Company leadership blames its poor performance on excessive discounting on its backlog of inventory, which it’s desperately trying to liquidate. Analysts pointed out that while Nike faces challenges, competitors like Hoka have reported year-over-year revenue growth exceeding 20%. This contrast underscores the growing appeal of challenger brands. Rebuilding Trust with Runners To address these issues, Nike is shifting focus back to its running roots. CEO Elliott Hill emphasized during its first-quarter earnings call, “We’re committed to listening to the runners who built our brand.” Nike is overhauling key lines like the Pegasus and Vomero, with prototypes promising lighter, more responsive midsoles and better durability. These redesigned shoes are set to launch in mid-2025. 
Source: about.nike.com Nike is also taking steps to reconnect with the running community. Recent sponsorships of grassroots events, partnerships with high school and collegiate track programs, and outreach to local running clubs aim to rebuild trust and authenticity. The Pegasus Trail 5, released in November 2024, was an early sign of this strategy come to life. While it received positive reviews, critics argue it is incremental progress rather than the breakthrough Nike needs. 
One of Nike’s boldest moves involves launching the Vaporfly Lite, a more affordable iteration of its carbon-plated marathon shoe. This signals a shift toward making high-performance footwear accessible to a broader audience. While elite athletes remain a focus, Nike is acknowledging the need to cater to everyday runners. A Challenging Road Ahead Nike is addressing its more immediate supply-chain inefficiencies by investing in regional manufacturing hubs to speed up product delivery. This move aims to minimize the inventory buildup that has plagued the company and ensure products reach retailers on time. Still, it may not be enough. Nike’s challenges reflect years of decisions that moved it away from its core audience. While the company is making efforts to reconnect with runners, it faces strong competition from brands like Hoka and On that have spent years building trust and delivering products tailored to the running community. The race to regain its dominance will require more than incremental changes – it will take innovation, operational excellence, and a genuine commitment to the needs of runners. Bottom line: For now, Nike is chasing the pack it once led. How to Make Money from Any Stock – Even NKE We’re not sold on Nike’s “comeback” potential. But when you have a seasonality tool like TradeSmith’s in your back pocket that pinpoints the single best days of the year to buy and sell any stock, you have a shot at making money – even from NKE. Here's what we found when we ran NKE through TradeSmith’s seasonality stock screener, which they plan to officially launch on January 8. (You’re invited to learn more here, by the way.) Below, you’ll see that it narrows down June 29 as the day when NKE could reliably start its move higher through September 17. This is based on 15 years of historical data and analysis: 
Notice the accuracy rate for this period is 93.33%. That means NKE has made a bullish move 93.33% of the time over the past 15 years, with an average return of 5.66%. And again, that’s for a very specific time period – June 29 through September 17. But there may be an even more reliable pattern to trade NKE, albeit for a marginally smaller average gain: November 12 through December 2. 
For this period, NKE logs an average gain of 4.64%; smaller, like I said – but the accuracy rate is 100%, meaning that NKE has moved higher 100% of the time during that period, right around the holiday shopping season. TradeSmith CEO Keith Kaplan let me know his team has run literally millions of tests on this seasonality tool. And in their 18-year backtest of trading these signals, they had a positive average return every year: 5.96% overall, with an average hold time of 19 days. Pretty cool, right? Keith will let you in on all the details of this amazing new tool on January 8 at 10:00 a.m. ET. Register here now – and try it out for yourself. Until next time,  Andy Swan
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