الجمعة، 10 يناير 2025

Is the American Dream Over for Most Americans?

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Is the American Dream Over for Most Americans?

Alexander Green, Chief Investment Strategist, The Oxford Club

Alexander Green

A few years ago, I debated Dr. Gregory Clark, a professor of economics at the University of California, Davis, at FreedomFest - an annual conference in Las Vegas, Nevada - in front of a couple thousand people.

The resolution? "The American Dream Is Over for Most Americans."

It was an Oxford-style debate. Before we began, the audience was polled to see where they stood on the issue. They were polled again after the debate - and following a robust Q&A session - to see if they had been moved one way or the other by our arguments.

At the beginning, the debate moderator read the resolution twice, once to see a show of hands for how many agreed - and then again to see how many disagreed. The response was mixed, just like today's consensus.

Recent polls show that between half and three-quarters of Americans do not believe in the American Dream.

I find that astonishing. The Dream is something I have always believed in, beginning long before I took the first steps toward achieving it.

Having spent 40 years as a research analyst and financial writer, I've had a long time to think about this and help thousands of ordinary Americans in their personal pursuit of it.

Though on paper at least, it seemed Dr. Clark was a formidable debate opponent.

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He was educated at Cambridge University and earned a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard. He had written many scholarly articles and essays and was the author of two prize-winning books.

His credentials were stronger than his argument, however. When he took the stage, he got right to the point, telling the audience, "The American Dream is a complete myth."

He argued that many Americans falsely believe that our unique brand of liberty is responsible for rapid social mobility and creates better living conditions than most "socialized economies," such as Norway, Denmark, Sweden, or Germany.

According to Clark, the best measure of social mobility in any society is just how correlated the average person's economic status is with their parents'.

If that number is zero, you have complete mobility and could end up anywhere. If that number is one, you have zero mobility - destined to follow in your parents' footsteps.

He said the data shows there is absolutely nothing exceptional or unusual about the U.S. economy.

"Most of people's outcomes are predictable at the time that they are born, whether they live in the United States, whether they live in Sweden, whether they live in Communist China, or whether they live in preindustrial England," he said. "The idea of the American Dream just doesn't hold. It's an illusion."

I find it surprising that someone can study at Cambridge and get a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard and still believe that the typical American is no more likely to rise economically than someone in Communist China or preindustrial England.

China has a market economy but no democracy. In that country - and all Marxist nations - the most successful are generally those who are closest to political power.

In preindustrial England - and other agrarian societies - the richest were those who inherited or seized power.

To compare those two examples to the present-day United States - where success is largely determined by talent, hard work and risk-taking - and find no difference in the average person's potential to rise, you really have to put on the ideological blinders.

Yet, according to his book The Son Also Rises, Clark tracked rare surnames over generations and found no social mobility in any country he examined, including the United States.

I set aside the methodical limitations - and oversimplification - of tracking surnames over a period of decades, especially since women have traditionally surrendered their surnames on their wedding day.

I focused instead on his headlong clash with reality.

Many readers have had an experience similar to mine. I grew up in a middle-class household and attended public schools. I can look back over the past 50 years and recognize that most of my contemporaries who worked hard, took responsibility for their lives, made good choices, and persisted did well for themselves, regardless of their parents' economic status a half-century ago.

Luck - both good and bad - has an unquantifiable effect on everyone's life, of course. And let's be honest. Some have a lot more of one than the other. (Life really isn't fair.)

Moreover, choices that seemed good at the time can turn out to be very different when we look in the rearview mirror. Still, most Americans do have an almost unlimited opportunity to better their lives and pursue their dreams.

I pointed out that the American Dream is an aspiration to be achieved over a period of years, not an entitlement to collect at a government office.

I'll readily admit that many citizens of this country have not achieved the Dream - nor are they moving toward it. They are stuck.

In some cases, circumstances beyond their control are to blame. (Although there are millions of Americans who have overcome unfortunate and even tragic circumstances to achieve their more important dreams.)

But the possibility is available to everyone. Unfortunately, many don't know what to do. Or even how to get started.

Clark took the fact that some Americans don't achieve the Dream to argue that it doesn't exist. To him, your circumstances at birth - and dumb luck - determine your fate.

He did concede that the U.S. economy is a successful one. But he continually reiterated that there is absolutely nothing exceptional about it.

He concluded his opening remarks with this summary statement: "There is no American Dream. And there is no special place in the world that American liberty represents."

When it was my turn to take the stage, I pointed out the avalanche of evidence that the American Dream is real... and how it is open to everyone, regardless of their circumstances.

When I was done, I felt that I'd only scratched the surface. But I had said more than enough from the perspective of the audience.

When we polled the room after the debate, not a single hand went up in favor of the resolution that the American Dream is over.

The conference organizer, Mark Skousen, told me it was the only complete wipeout in the 20-plus-year history of debates at the conference.

What did I say to change the audience's mind? That will be the subject not only of the next several columns but of my messages throughout 2025.

The American Dream is real. It's available to anyone who wants to pursue it.

And the first step in achieving it - the step more than half of Americans have yet to take - is realizing it exists.

Good investing,

Alex

OXF Seven

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