What the "Trump Trade" Is Telling Us Right Now Now, I don't mean to upset anybody with political commentary. But the election is less than two weeks away and the uncertainty of who will be the next President of the United States is impacting the stock market. Case in point: The recent rise in Treasury yields. Interest rates have backed up quite a bit in the past five weeks, and these rising rates have really weighed on the stock market this week. As of writing, the 10-year Treasury rose to as high as 4.25% this week, while the two-year Treasury reached 4.07%. Those are the highest levels since early summer. Yields are also up sharply from where they were before the Federal Reserve cut key interest rates in September. At that time, the 10-year Treasury yield was at about 3.6% and the two-year Treasury yield was at about 3.65%. The catalyst seems to be emanating from Europe and what is called the “Trump Trade.” This refers to the betting odds of the presidential election. In other words, the better former President Trump’s electoral prospects look, the more concerned traders (particularly in Europe) become about the U.S. budget deficit, inflation making a comeback and other economic policies that could put pressure on long-term rates. Right now, our budget deficit is $1.38 trillion, and a growing share of our tax revenue goes to pay interest on the $35.7 trillion national debt. And it’s only getting worse. The bond market might be worried about a Trump win, but the reality is it doesn't matter who takes the presidency. Our spending problem is not going away. The sad truth is neither candidate has the courage to talk honestly about how bad things are. Right now, they are in full “suck up” mode, promising us any and everything under the sun to get themselves elected. And nearly every single one of these campaign promises involves some sort of action that will lead to even less money coming in than is going out. This is why you have people like legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones saying recently on CNBC that the U.S. is going “broke really quickly unless we get serious about dealing with our spending issues.” He also said that the bond market may force whoever wins the election to deal with it. What This Means for Investors... The bottom line is that this election season is creating a lot of uncertainty, political strife and market volatility. And after election day, I predict that things will get even more volatile and trigger big swings in the market. This could be due to a contested election, a reckoning in the bond market, an unexpected move by the Fed, a flareup in the Middle East or Ukraine (or all of the above). But here’s the silver lining: Unexpected, chaotic events can be a great opportunity to make a decade’s-worth of gains in just a few months. That’s why I’m hosting my “Day After Summit” on Tuesday, October 29, at 7 p.m. Eastern time. Because I want you to be able to turn the market chaos that’s coming to your advantage. During this summit, I will be focusing on the day after Election Day, when the uncertainty, political strife and market volatility will begin again. And we want to share how you can turn the market chaos that is coming to your advantage. I will even be giving away a post-election trade for free. It’s designed to pay off no matter who wins the election. You won’t want to miss this discussion. To reserve your spot today, simply click here now. I look forward to seeing you there! Sincerely, | 
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