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Yeah… Republicans will need more than a slim majority to effectively govern in a transformative way.
The other key issue is policy. While the extremes of both parties have hinted at some radical policies that don’t appeal to the majority of Americans, the cohesion of the Democrats make those extreme policies considerably more likely.
If the Democrats do take control of the White House and Congress, they have hinted at wanting to make changes that fundamentally alter the structure of the American political system, up to and including killing the filibuster, restructuring the Supreme Court, or even adding states like Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico that will presumably be reliable Democratic voting blocs.
Now, it’s possible that there’s more “bark” than “bite” here, and that the Democrats wouldn’t follow through on these policies if elected. But the fear is certainly there, especially among those to the right.
On Wall Street, these are the kind of uncertainties that would likely cause consternation.
Add to it Vice President Harris’s proposed tax on unrealized capital gains, which could only ever pass in a world where Democrats controlled Congress and the White House.
That tax would be anathema to Wall Street investors.
So, what are the odds of either side taking full control?
The good news (for those that like gridlock) is that it’s probably unlikely.
The Republicans have a very slim majority in the House of Representatives. Most projections right now have that remaining as a slim majority, though it’s very hard to project where that might end up.
On the other hand, while the White House is hard to project, the momentum certainly seems to be on the side of the Democrats and Vice President Harris.
But where I really think folks should focus is the Senate.
Right now, the Senate projection looks like this:
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