الاثنين، 30 سبتمبر 2024

5 things to watch this week in the markets

Here is what I am paying attention to this week
 
   
     

Happy Monday, folks…

Another big week in the markets ahead and just 35 days until a massive US election.

If you didn’t see the “Red/Blue” event I hosted with North America’s #1 ranked stock picker by Sumzero, watch that here so you’re prepared for the election.

There are a whole bunch of things on my radar for this week, but here’s a quick bullet point list of the 5 I think are most critical.

I’ll try to dive into some of these in a deeper way over the coming days.


#1 Mag7

Can you believe the market made all time highs with the Mag7 stocks lagging behind? I can’t! I would have bet dollars to donuts that if we saw all time highs in September, the mega cap tech stocks would have led the surge.

Instead, we have other sectors like consumer discretionary - check out LVS, WYNN and the cruise stocks - plowing ahead along with utilities and materials.

Now, if that’s not weird enough, you’d think if the boring stocks led the charge for all time highs that energy would be at the center of it right?

Nope, worst performing sector for the entire month by a lot!

But I am getting off topic… I am watching the Magnificent 7 (AMZN, NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, GOOG. AMZN, and META) to see if this is a real changing of the guard where tech is shifting away from the spotlight and other sectors lead… 

Or if it’s just a lagging situation because of the over-correction in August and these juggernauts will jump back to the top of the heap if the bullishness continues.

I was wrong about this last time, but I am going to double down: I think if we get more “sugar high” where the markets are pushed higher and higher, we’ll see the Mag7 start leading again.

Watch the ticker MAGS for a consolidated way to play this “catch up” opportunity.


#2 Energy

I mentioned it above… It’s bizarre how poor it has performed. Even in the recent sector rotation, it’s done poorly.

I think it’s only a matter of time before the energy sector makes a move, but it might just be post election as we’ve seen in the last 20 years.

Either way, I am still adding some energy that pays healthy dividends to my portfolio and being paid to wait on stocks like OKE.


#3 Bitcoin

Bitcoin had a big surge after interest rate cuts and, theoretically, should be in a a great position with those cuts and the post-halving cycle to make its next big move.

It just seems like it doesn’t want to…In fact, right now looks like a great short from the top level. 

 
 

But here’s the thing: When these ranges start looking this steady – like you should just keep playing the tops and bottoms – is usually around the time they break. 

I am betting Bitcoin breaks the high here in the next two weeks or collapses below the low by end of October, but either way, I think this range gets busted wide open.


#4 Small Caps

You’ve heard me talk about them a lot since the cuts started looking inevitable.

So far, they haven’t been able to get full momentum yet. Some big runs for 2-3 days and then a cooling off…

The chart of IW (Russell index) looks like ranges on top of ranges:

 
 

That’s over 4 years with only one clear run in either direction that you see there on the left side.

Small caps are due for another one at some point and we could see a critical break this week – anything over $225 (weekly close) on IWM is another buy signal for me.


#5 Gold

Yes, I am beating the dead horse again.

I love gold right now and we’re finally getting a little pullback. Now, I don’t usually like trading into pullbacks (I prefer to wait for momentum pushing back up), but since I am a long term buyer on gold, I don’t mind bing right into some bearishness. If gold drops back to $2500, I will look to add more.

Keep in mind, that’s for the longer term view. On short term plays, you know the drill: Wait for all time high breaks and trade it even higher. It’s worked like a charm on gold all year with a ton of triple digit opportunities doing it the way I do. I hope you’ve gotten in on some of those!

Summary:

Tons of critical stuff going on in the markets this week and lots of opportunity out there. I don’t think this week is a make or break week by any stretch, but I would love to see the bulls win and cement the idea that we’re fully bullish until the election so I can keep playing longs with confidence.

I’ll keep ya updated here and in my free telegram along the way,

Nate

 
   
 

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