الأربعاء، 17 يوليو 2024

Market Rotation — What’s Actually Happening

tech went out of style fast
 
   
     
   
 
JULY 17, 2024
   
PROSPERITY PUB MARKET TALK
Market Rotation — What’s Actually Happening
 
 
For a few weeks now, our own Nate Tucci has pointed out the possibility of a sector rotation happening in the markets.

And it looks like that rotation may have gone into full effect over the past few trading sessions as the once-unstoppable Nasdaq seems to have stalled out to the benefit of other sectors: health, financial, discretionary — even the floundering small-cap Russell 2000 Index (IWM) has caught fire.

It seems to be down to a couple of things: With tech having led much of the year's rally so far, multiples were already getting sky high.

Meanwhile, the Fed's softening stance on possible rate cuts come at a great time for small businesses, increasing the possibilities for the type of growth and lending environment that stand to benefit small caps.

And even, as Nate pointed out Monday, the unfortunate attempt on former President Trump's life seems to have reanimated the Republican's campaign —  with even Wall Street betting a second Trump presidency could be good for business outside of just the largest large caps.

The interest rate part of the equation is also interesting. Especially if you read Nate's piece on the onerous burden of government regulation on small business.

But this kind of onerous burden doesn't stop at regulation. Interest rates also disproportionately affect small businesses, which have less resources and need to rely more on loans than their larger counterparts.

Think about it, large businesses — household names like Microsoft, Amazon, Apple and others — have more resources, not to mention larger piles of cash with which to insulate themselves.

In the kind of inflationary, high-interest-rate environment we've been in, it's no wonder small caps have been floundering all year.

Meanwhile, even though nothing has actually changed with rates yet — as Nate has often said — sometimes dangling the carrot is better than the actual carrot itself. It seems as though just the thought that the Fed might lower rates is enough to spark optimism.

Nate summed up the market shift and resulting chaos nicely in his FREE Telegram channel… Be sure to click and join for free trades and guidance as the new market reality continues evolving:

 
 

— The Prosperity Pub Team
 
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GEOF SMITH'S TAKE
A Case Study In Finding Potential Winners (BYRN)
 

I've been getting some questions about my recommendation on BYRN (Byrna Technologies) back on January’s episode of Publisher’s Roundtable.

So, I thought it would be a good time to revisit this stock and give you some insights into my process and what I see in store for it.

You might remember that I pointed out BYRN when it was trading around $7. Since then, it ran up as high as $15 — more than a 200% return in a short period of time.

Naturally, after such a big run, it corrected back, but I still see a lot of potential upside.

I first heard about Byrna when my wife brought it to my attention.

She was looking into their products, specifically the Byrna gun, which is essentially a high-tech paintball gun.

She liked the concept of a non-lethal self-defense option, and that got me curious.

I started digging into the company and found that it was a standalone entity with a solid product that could appeal to a broad market, particularly women who might be hesitant to carry a traditional firearm.

As I said, while we got in early and it quickly ran up to $15, after such a quick rise, it’s only natural to expect a pullback.

And it sure has pulled back, where it currently sits just above $10 per share.

But that’s not the end of the story for Byrna. As long as it holds above the $9 area, I think it's still a buy.

In the longer term, I can see this stock reaching $25 to $30.

What's also exciting is that Byrna recently signed a deal with the Argentinian police to supply them with Byrna guns.

This kind of expansion into law enforcement could be a game-changer. I believe they'll continue to penetrate more markets and municipalities, driving further growth.

For those who are already in, I suggest holding onto it.

For new investors, consider selling puts to acquire it at a lower price and take advantage of the potential upside.

This approach has worked well for me in the past, and I believe BYRN has a bright future ahead.

Remember, investing in stocks often means looking beyond the numbers and considering the practical appeal of a product. If it's something you or your loved ones find valuable, chances are others will too.

I’ll talk more about that in a future update.


— Geof Smith
   
 

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