Last week, I discussed four ways to keep your cool in a volatile market. Since then, the market has only gotten more volatile. As of Monday's close, it was down 5% from its highs. This weekend, someone I know was very worried about the recent market volatility. She has exposure to stocks, but she also has a large amount of her capital in Treasurys. I told her, "If a 5% drop has you so stressed out that you can't sleep, you shouldn't be in the market." She countered that she needs the growth that the market offers. So she wants all the growth that the market can provide... with none of the risk. That's the problem that many people face. There's pretty much no other place to put your money that offers the 8% to 10% average annual growth of the stock market. But that 8% to 10% average annual growth is over the long term. It is not a steady and straight line. We'll have years like we had in 2023 and 2024 - when the market was up more than 20% each year - and years like 2022, when it was down nearly 20%. Some years will be much worse. I suggested to my friend that she's fine, considering the large amount of Treasurys that she has. Based on her fixed income alone, she'll be able to meet all of her financial obligations for years to come. In last week's column, my first point was to think about your timeline. I believe this is one of the most important yet overlooked things an investor should do. If you have several years until you'll need the money you've invested in the stock market, you shouldn't pay attention to the market's day-to-day moves. Even a nasty bear market will have almost no effect on a portfolio that won't be cashed out for another decade or longer (unless you invest more during the bear market, in which case it will have a very positive effect). On the other hand, an investor who plans to tap some of the funds within a few years shouldn't have that money exposed to potential volatility. I always recommend taking any cash out of the market that you'll need within three years. Anything can happen in a three-year period. If your timeline is longer, you should be OK, as bear markets typically last less than a year. |
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