Why Backtesting Is the Most Important Skill Every Trader Needs

Join me at 9:15 a.m. ET for “Morning Monster”!

Here’s a secret: You’re competing against AI bots in the market — see how to compete live at 11:30 a.m. ET   Rotation Into What?!  First, don’t miss today’s Daily Chart Setup trade idea down lower in this newsletter. We are seeing hedge fund traders sell out of risk and move into a certain sector.  What sector? I plan to go through it.  Come join me as we dive in and see what’s moving! Plus, as always, we have stocks popping and dropping so come find out what is moving this morning as I look for stocks and do some live premarket analysis on SPX, SPY, NDX, QQQ, Russell, IWM and other stocks that are potential plays for the day.    — — —    Why Backtesting Is the Most Important Skill Every Trader Needs If you’ve spent any time watching trading videos on YouTube, you’ve probably seen someone claim from people who’ve found the perfect strategy — one that’s “99% accurate” and guarantees massive profits. It sounds amazing.  It also sounds like complete nonsense. The truth is, no strategy is foolproof. The only way to separate fact from fiction is through backtesting. If you’re not testing strategies before risking real money, you’re setting yourself up to fail. Why You Can’t Trust Hype I recently came across a video claiming an indicator called WilliamsVIXFix could predict market bottoms with 99% accuracy. That’s a bold claim, so I decided to test it. I coded the strategy, plugged in the exact settings from the video, and ran thousands of backtests across different market conditions.  The result? Not even close to 99%.  The best I could get was 52% accuracy — and that was after tweaking it to be better than what the video recommended. The original settings barely hit 41%. So why do these videos get hundreds of thousands of views? Because hype sells. But in trading, buying into hype is the fastest way to blow up your account. What Backtesting Actually Does Backtesting isn’t about finding a “magic formula.” It’s about understanding probabilities. When you test a strategy on historical data, you see how it performs over hundreds or thousands of trades.  You find out:   • How often it wins and loses.   • What market conditions it works best in.   • How big the drawdowns can be.   • Whether it even works at all.   Most strategies that look great in a single example fall apart when you run them through real-world conditions. If something was truly 99% accurate, hedge funds would be using it to print money. Don’t Trade Blind Every successful trader I know backtests. They don’t take someone’s word for it. They run the numbers, find their edge, and optimize their approach. If you’re not backtesting, you’re guessing. And in this game, guessing is expensive. So next time you see a trading strategy that looks too good to be true, don’t just take the bait. Test it. If it holds up, great. If it doesn’t, you just saved yourself from making a costly mistake. Either way, you win. Now be sure to join me live at 9:15 a.m. ET for “Morning Monster,” my market-open livestream on YouTube!   ‘Morning Monster’ Is Starting NOW! I’m also live at 5 p.m. ET on Tuesdays for “30 Minutes of Awesome” — bring your ticker and I’ll analyze it in real time! And be sure to hit that Subscribe button on my YouTube page! _____________________________________________________ Here’s a Secret: You’re Competing Against AI Bots in the Market   A new study suggests that 70% of all U.S. stock market volume is initiated by AI bots…   And if you’re like most people, you have no idea where to begin in order to compete out there in the markets…   But I’ve Got You Covered _____________________________________________________ Today’s Daily Chart Setup: Semiconductor ETF (SMH)     This idea came directly from my Daily Chart Setup that automatically signals potential plays.    • SMH is a new potential entry. Target: 275.08 Stop below: 231.24   • SMH has a historical win rate of 90.91%   • SMH has a profit factor of 8.801   • SMH trades last 34 trading days on average over 22 trades since 2000.   See the secret behind these signals here! This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. Always remember that past performance is not indicative of future results. How the Daily Chart Setup Works Here’s a more detailed description of how the pattern triggers: 1. The price breaks upward through the orange Market Roadmap Line.  2. Then the price goes up and down while staying above the line. Eventually, it comes down to touch the line again — this could take days, weeks or even months.  3. Once it touches the line and starts moving back up, that signals an entry.  I use Fibonacci levels for for profit targets and stop losses, and these two tools combined have helped me achieve a 77% win rate over the past six-plus years! You can grab my Market Roadmap Indicator here for just $5 — less than a cup of coffee at most places! Jeffry Turnmire Jeffry Turnmire Trading I host my “Morning Monster” livestream at 9:15 a.m. ET each weekday on YouTube, and then “30 Minutes of Awesome” at 5 p.m. ET each Tuesday! Please check out my channel and hit that Subscribe button! I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader. I've been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it's the Eagle Scout in me.  *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.

Here’s a secret: You’re competing against AI bots in the market — see how to compete live at 11:30 a.m. ET   Rotation Into What?!   First, don’t miss today’s Daily Chart Setup trade idea down lower in this newsletter.   We are seeing hedge fund traders sell out of risk and move into a certain sector.  What sector? I plan to go through it.    Come join me as we dive in and see what’s moving!   Plus, as always, we have stocks popping and dropping so come find out what is moving this morning as I look for stocks and do some live premarket analysis on SPX, SPY, NDX, QQQ, Russell, IWM and other stocks that are potential plays for the day.    — — —    Why Backtesting Is the Most Important Skill Every Trader Needs   If you’ve spent any time watching trading videos on YouTube, you’ve probably seen someone claim from people who’ve found the perfect strategy — one that’s “99% accurate” and guarantees massive profits. It sounds amazing.    It also sounds like complete nonsense.   The truth is, no strategy is foolproof. The only way to separate fact from fiction is through backtesting. If you’re not testing strategies before risking real money, you’re setting yourself up to fail.   Why You Can’t Trust Hype   I recently came across a video claiming an indicator called WilliamsVIXFix could predict market bottoms with 99% accuracy. That’s a bold claim, so I decided to test it.   I coded the strategy, plugged in the exact settings from the video, and ran thousands of backtests across different market conditions.    The result? Not even close to 99%.    The best I could get was 52% accuracy — and that was after tweaking it to be better than what the video recommended. The original settings barely hit 41%.   So why do these videos get hundreds of thousands of views? Because hype sells. But in trading, buying into hype is the fastest way to blow up your account.   What Backtesting Actually Does   Backtesting isn’t about finding a “magic formula.” It’s about understanding probabilities. When you test a strategy on historical data, you see how it performs over hundreds or thousands of trades.    You find out:   How often it wins and loses.   What market conditions it works best in.   How big the drawdowns can be.   Whether it even works at all.   Most strategies that look great in a single example fall apart when you run them through real-world conditions. If something was truly 99% accurate, hedge funds would be using it to print money.   Don’t Trade Blind   Every successful trader I know backtests. They don’t take someone’s word for it. They run the numbers, find their edge, and optimize their approach.   If you’re not backtesting, you’re guessing. And in this game, guessing is expensive.   So next time you see a trading strategy that looks too good to be true, don’t just take the bait. Test it. If it holds up, great. If it doesn’t, you just saved yourself from making a costly mistake. Either way, you win.   Now be sure to join me live at 9:15 a.m. ET for “Morning Monster,” my market-open livestream on YouTube!   ‘Morning Monster’ Is Starting NOW! I’m also live at 5 p.m. ET on Tuesdays for “30 Minutes of Awesome” — bring your ticker and I’ll analyze it in real time!   And be sure to hit that Subscribe button on my YouTube page! _____________________________________________________ Here’s a Secret: You’re Competing Against AI Bots in the Market    A new study suggests that 70% of all U.S. stock market volume is initiated by AI bots…   And if you’re like most people, you have no idea where to begin in order to compete out there in the markets…   But I’ve Got You Covered _____________________________________________________ Today’s Daily Chart Setup: Semiconductor ETF (SMH)     This idea came directly from my Daily Chart Setup that automatically signals potential plays.    SMH is a new potential entry. Target: 275.08 Stop below: 231.24   SMH has a historical win rate of 90.91%   SMH has a profit factor of 8.801   SMH trades last 34 trading days on average over 22 trades since 2000.   See the secret behind these signals here!   This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. Always remember that past performance is not indicative of future results.   How the Daily Chart Setup Works   Here’s a more detailed description of how the pattern triggers:   1. The price breaks upward through the orange Market Roadmap Line.    2. Then the price goes up and down while staying above the line. Eventually, it comes down to touch the line again — this could take days, weeks or even months.    3. Once it touches the line and starts moving back up, that signals an entry.    I use Fibonacci levels for for profit targets and stop losses, and these two tools combined have helped me achieve a 77% win rate over the past six-plus years!   You can grab my Market Roadmap Indicator here for just $5 — less than a cup of coffee at most places! Jeffry Turnmire Jeffry Turnmire Trading   I host my “Morning Monster” livestream at 9:15 a.m. ET each weekday on YouTube, and then “30 Minutes of Awesome” at 5 p.m. ET each Tuesday!   Please check out my channel and hit that Subscribe button!   I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.   I've been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it's the Eagle Scout in me.    *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.

ABOUT US:  We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Jeffry Turnmire Trading provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Jeffry Turnmire Trading are for your informational purposes only. Neither Jeffry Turnmire Trading nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Jeffry Turnmire Trading is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions.  Please visit https://prosperitypub.com/terms-conditions/ for our full Terms and Conditions. Unsubscribe This email was sent to phanxuanhoa60.trade1357@blogger.com by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States Prosperity Pub

ABOUT US:  We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Jeffry Turnmire Trading provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Jeffry Turnmire Trading are for your informational purposes only. Neither Jeffry Turnmire Trading nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Jeffry Turnmire Trading is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions.  Please visit https://prosperitypub.com/terms-conditions/ for our full Terms and Conditions. Unsubscribe This email was sent to phanxuanhoa60.trade1357@blogger.com by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States Prosperity Pub