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Happy Monday, everyone. For the last few weeks, you’ve heard me talk about how bullish I am when the market cracks all time highs… It took about 10 days to get going, but last week ripped nearly 3% higher on the S&P and hopefully you all took advantage (I know I did!). But you may be wondering “What’s next?”... After all, you’ve heard me call this a “meltup” or a “sugar high” in recent weeks which means the market has to essentially crash back down, right? Well, not so fast… While I do think this is all smoke and mirrors – there is no logical economic reason for the stock market to be where it is other than liquidity (aka lots of printed dollars), that doesn’t mean it has to start making sense on any given timeline. Let me take you through some bullish “meltups” over the last decade… Here’s the S&P after Covid in 2020… Oh. My. Goodness. Sometimes I still forget how amazing that run was even though it was just 4 years ago. One of the most dramatic runs in stock market history after it seemed already overheated and the economy made no sense. Now, a lot of people remember the Covid craze, but do you remember just one year earlier? And then what about the great crisis in 2008? We saw the market correct dramatically and finally start to pull up again in 2010. If you remember, at the time, everyone was saying it was already due for a big correction again. Lots of talking heads said we still needed to flush more cash out of the economy and so on when it finally reached new highs here: And we could even talk about before 2008 when people like Dr Micahl Burry realized the market was broken in 2006… Yet it “melted up” for 2 full years before the financial crisis actually hit. So what’s my point? Well, my point is not that we’re going to see another 2-3 years of straight up markets like many of these examples. But you should realize it’s possible. Just because the economy and market don’t make sense, doesn’t mean it has to correct on our timeline. We’ve seen this go on for years. That’s why I am remaining extremely bullish until we actually see the momentum shift the other direction. It’s why I gave you that line in the sand two weeks ago that hopefully guided you to trading long only since then. And it’s why I am still bullish today, even if the market feels overheated. Tomorrow, I’ll share a more detailed outlook of this “meltup” and what I expect – plus a few stocks I like to outperform along the way. Be sure to join me @ 3pm et for the live market melt up session! See you there, Nate |
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