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As a young investor with an old soul, I have always liked energy stocks. They make up a pretty significant chunk of my dividends forever portfolio for good reason. But energy has lagged behind this “sugar high” market all year… In September, energy was the weakest sector once again: The purple at the top is discretionary by the way so it makes sense: When the market is overvaluing discretionary spending, it is undervaluing staples and hard assets like energy. But something is going on beneath the surface. You’ve heard me call this a smoke and mirrors economy for a year now… Are consumers really doing so well that discretionary spending should be leading the pack? I think not. And consider that gold is consistently making all time highs as the king of hard assets while energy gets crushed. I am not saying we’re at the tipping point yet, but I can tell you this doesn’t add up. And if just the first couple days of October are any indication, a reversal could be happening quite soon: Energy is picking up steam as the market dips from its highs, dock strikes pick up and Nike whiffs on earnings. Here’s the thing: Energy isn’t a sector I typically trade actively trying to call tops and bottoms. And if it were, I wouldn’t be buying quite yet even with the last few days… But since it’s a sector I believe has long term value, I am happy to keep investing, being paid dividends to hold it and waiting for the breakout. I think, within the next 6 months, we’ll see a significant run in energy. And I am happy to wait patiently while I hold stocks that pay between 3 and 5 percent dividends. Now, if you are thinking “Wait, Nate, you are OK to just sit there and lose money on energy for however long…” The answer is no. Part of the formula has to be to use good stocks so you’re not losing money hoping for a turnaround. That’s actually a key criteria in the dividends forever portfolio I mentioned before. My #1 energy stock is up over 28% this year: So, don’t get me wrong… I am not talking about taking it on the chin and hoping for a turnaround. I am talking about accepting a lagging sector with good value, but still trading high quality stocks… And if the supercycle kicks off in energy like I think it will, being in a “home run” position. So to answer the question: Is now the time to buy energy? Not if you’re trading weekly options, no. But if you’re building a basket of stocks that could be your biggest winners 6 months from now, I’d say yes. Nate |
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