Thursday, 3 October 2024

the only line I am watching…

 
   
     

OK, you’ve heard me say it a bajillion times… I will say it again.

Typically when an asset (especially the broad market) makes an all time high, it also beats that all time high by some margin. 

In other words, it doesn’t go one penny higher than the previous one and turn around… It usually ends up grinding 5 or 10 or 15 percent higher over the next several months.

I actually expected us to get immediate momentum this week after the crack of the highs on Sep 19th and a stall week last week.

So far this week it’s been another pretty quiet one.

So maybe this is one of those times where it actually won’t beat the highs by a nice margin. It does happen from time to time…

Well, for me, it just means watching that clear line on the S&P.

If you use SPY, it’s about $565…

 
 

On the ES that same line is 5,723…

And that’s what I am watching.

Meaning even only slower weeks like this one, I am still ONLY looking at bullish plays while we’re above that level.

Does that put me at risk?

You bet.

If I am wrong, I am going to be totally wrong! I have a clear bias and it might not be right…

But, for me, this is as clear of a bullish scenario as we can be in so I have to trade the conviction. It does mean taking lumps every once in a while, but over time being aggressively bullish when the market is bullish really pans out well.

I don’t want to be one of those investors who is so overly careful that they miss the best opportunities in the market.

I mean, just look at 2024…

I have taken a few hits when the market flipped into 5-8% corrections out of nowhere.

But boy am I glad I have been aggressively bullish for the other 90% of the time!

I can’t imagine having been overly careful waiting for more perfect conditions (which basically do not exist) and missed out on all the opportunities.

Now, maybe that’s not a fit for how you want to approach the market and that’s totally fine too.

But, for me, it’s pretty clear cut.

I am bullish right now and that’s my line in the sand.

Hope this helps,
Nate

P.S. Please please please take advantage of Automated Options while we’re in this bullish mode. It’s such a great strategy!

 
   
 

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