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Gold is having a banner year, up over 30% since January. But the big question many traders are asking is: “Am I late on this monster move, or are we in for a longer run?”
Here’s the deal. Right now, gold is moving more than just based on technical charts — it’s acting like a "fear index."
What I mean is that chaos and uncertainty are high — as they are now — people flock to gold. It’s a safe haven when the world feels shaky, and right now, things are feeling pretty shaky.
The Big Picture
Let’s look at the facts. Global debt has hit a staggering $315 trillion, which is about 333% of the entire world’s GDP. And the U.S.? We’re buried in debt, too, and headed into a critical election year.
Historically, when the political landscape gets volatile — like if Trump wins, for example — gold takes off. That’s exactly what we saw back in 2016, and we could see it again if things play out similarly.
Why? When Trump won, we saw a declining dollar, lower interest rates, and a flight to gold as a safe haven. It’s the same playbook this time around, especially with all the uncertainty surrounding our economy and global tensions.
China and Global Moves
Look at China. Their economy is slowing down, and recently they injected a massive amount of liquidity to stabilize things. When big players like China start feeling shaky, it sends ripples across the global market.
Add in the fact that central banks, including ours, are likely to keep easing rates, and you've got a recipe for gold to keep climbing.
Then, there are the geopolitical factors. We’ve got multiple wars going on and countries around the world are ramping up military spending. That’s not the kind of environment where things calm down quickly, which means the fear index stays strong.
So, is this a short-term run for gold? Not by a long shot. This could be a multi-year trend, especially with all the chaos in the mix.
What About Silver?
When it comes to silver, it often follows gold’s lead, but it also has its own industrial demand to back it up. The global slowdown in manufacturing might weigh on it a bit, but silver’s still got a lot of potential.
If you’re looking to get into silver, I’d stick with names like SLV (the silver ETF) or stocks like Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM), Endeavour Silver (EXK), or Pan American Silver (PAAS).
The only thing to watch out for with those individual stocks (WPM, EXK and PAAS) is that they come with earnings reports and CEOs that can make or break them. But if you’re sticking with SLV — an ETF that tracks the price of silver — you’re just playing the metal itself, so there are no no extra headaches.
The Bottom Line
The way things are shaping up, the gold run isn’t slowing down anytime soon. As I said, multiple forces — including a world that’s uncertain, a global economy that’s shaky, and investors looking for a safe place to park their money — are lining up for a “perfect storm” to continue pushing gold higher.
— Geof Smith
P.S. Nate Tucci’s using a new CBOE update to target overnight payouts every day the market is open! View all the details right here.
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