Hey folks,
There’s a lot of noise in the headlines today… but what’s not being talked about might matter more.
Let’s start with the Ukraine minerals deal. We’re still waiting on it to close.
The deal I’m talking about would give Western countries better access to Ukraine’s massive deposits of rare earth and critical minerals — stuff we need to compete with China.
Ukraine’s sitting on some of the largest untapped reserves in Europe, and locking in a trade agreement could help shift supply chains away from Chinese control.
And why’s that important?
Because China currently controls 80% of the world’s production of four critical materials:
- Magnesium
- Tungsten
- Bismuth
- Graphite
These aren’t everyday names, but they’re in just about everything — EV batteries, fighter jets, smartphones, and medical devices.
If that Ukraine deal stalls out, we’re stuck relying on China even longer. This has national security, tech, and energy implications, and I’m surprised more people aren’t talking about it.
Tankers, Tariffs, and Trouble
Now tack on what’s happening with Venezuela.
Over the weekend, they started pulling export paperwork for oil tankers headed to the U.S., and suspending loading permits on others.
What that means in plain English is this: Venezuela’s government is blocking tankers from leaving port. Without the right paperwork, they legally can’t sail. And if they can’t sail, that oil doesn’t move — period.
That’s going to tighten supply just as we’re heading into the warmer months, when demand usually ramps up.
And here’s the kicker: Congress is out for two weeks on their Easter break. So even if this starts snowballing into something bigger, there’s no one in Washington to deal with it right now. That policy vacuum could make a bad situation worse.
The Week Ahead
I mentioned in Friday’s Weekly Wrap-Up that we’ve got a short but loaded week ahead — Retail Sales, CPI and PPI out of Europe, and the Philly Fed Index are all coming in hot. But this stuff I’m talking about now? It’s flying below the radar… and it’s the kind of thing that could sneak up on markets fast.
Bottom line: don’t just watch the headlines this week. You'd do well to watch the background scenery as well.
Talk soon,
—Geof Smith
P.S. Amid the chaos, one overlooked resource is getting ready to pop! And I’m giving you my top TWO tickers right here!
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