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"Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm" ~ Winston Churchill
This Week at DTI
Monday
- 10am ET - Academy (Learn More)
- 7pm ET - Futures Session
Tuesday
- 10am ET - Academy (Learn More)
- 10:45am ET - Connect the Dots (Learn More)
- 11:15am ET - Zebra
Wednesday
- In Person Futures class
- 12pm ET - Genesis (Learn More)
- 8pm ET - Midweek Market Update (Register)
Thursday
- In Person Futures Class
- 12pm ET - Afterburner Alerts (Learn More)
Friday
- 3pm ET - Weekly Wrap Up (Register) Market Review - Chuck Crow
The Start of this Week
We are going to stay on the AI track, but turn it into a numbers game. Marvel Technologies (MRVL) reports midweek. Artificial Intelligence is still a major player in this market. The bad showing last week only serves to emphasize the high point of focus this industry possesses. We have both MRVL and Broadcom (AVGO) reporting this week. MRVL reports Wednesday, and AVGO reports Thursday. Both companies produce semiconductors. The fates are likely tied together. The broader market needs this sector to get back on track, and oddly enough, this sector may need a little help from the broader market.
ES futures open this week at 5967.50. They opened last week at 6040.75. Last week’s high was set on Monday at 6067.50. The focus on the ES market though is not on the high end numbers, but rather on support. First we need to identify where it is, and then we need to see if the support can hold. The low on February 28, and the low of the month of February was 5848.00. The good news is that it is higher than the January low at 5809.00. In terms of trending the market in February posted both a higher low, and a higher high. That means we move into March with the market ready to trend higher. Of course to accomplish this, two things have to happen this month. The first is that we need to see the ES stay above 5848.00. The second is that we need to see the high of March exceed the 6166.50 all time high. In this first week of March, we are going to focus on the lower side. If the ES futures move below 5848.00 then we get a disruption in the broader market, and that will be hard to move past. Therefore the goal of the market on the first day of March is stay above 5848.00, and maybe as a bonus we can have a positive day. The second day we will be looking to see if the March 4 high is higher than the March 3 high, and we will also be keeping a close eye on the March low, assuming of course that it is higher than 5848.00.
Update on last week’s stocks.
NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) took a little spin by breaking a key support level from February 21 at 134.03. They dropped all the way to 124.44, but recovered a little on February 26, and started February 27, back above the 134.03 number at 135.00. That early push on February 27 had us stepping to the sidelines after a successful short move. The quick downtrend was actually broken on February 26 as the daily bar moved above the 130.20 high from February 25. A subsequent sell off on February 27 left me kicking myself on the sidelines, and I think it may be best to leave NVDA there for now.
In Walmart (WMT), the February 20 high was 100.12. This was after a bad showing following earnings the day before. WMT pushed down to 92.12 last week, but may be trying to recover. The original expected resistance was 105.30, the high from February 14. Walmart should be booking to peek back above 100.12, and if it gets a little help from the broader market, then we could see some upward momentum. The chaotic state of the broader market may suggest the need for a little caution.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is now off the table. It moved back below support levels which initially started as resistance. SMCI was able to break above 38.50 and push past 48.00 and then 57.00, but could not rise above the third level of resistance at 67.00. It then got caught up in last week’s mess. This one is sidelined, after performing well.
Looking ahead
We have a few options to look at this week. We can move back to retail with Target and Costco, or we can focus on tech with Broadcom and Marvel. I believe the market needs something good coming out of tech. Even if retail is stellar, without tech it would not be likely to be able to support the broader market. Therefore my focus moves to tech, and as mentioned before, due to the timing of the earnings announcements I am choosing to focus on Marvel Technologies (MRVL).
Like the broader market, MRVL took a bit of a hit last week. They broke out of consolidation on Thursday, but that turned out to be misleading as MRVL dropped from a Thursday open of 98.00 down to 87.28, and we opened Friday at 87.17. Friday’s high point was 92.08, and that could be the start of resistance. There is more though as the next step would be that Wednesday range with consolidation between 93.96 and 96.65. In other words, the climb from 92.08 to 98.06 (Thursday’s high) could be a bumpy one. The chart from last week shows a little open space between 98.06 and 104.22 (last week’s open).
 The weekly chart shows something a little more sinister. First, all through the month of February MRVL moved lower. It started the month at 108.74, posted a high in the first week at 121.81, and the highs of each successive week have been steadily trending lower. This is not a very bullish sign. However, it does present an opportunity. The market breaks trend by pushing the opposite side of whatever the current trend is. To break those successive downtrending highs, MRVL only needs to trade above 104.67. Here is where it gets fun. Everyone knows the numbers. All you need to do is look them up, they are not a trade secret. If this stock is even attempting to break that 104.67 high, it first needs to break above the 92.08 high of February 28. Then it needs to push past 98.06. Watch Monday morning, and if the broader market looks solid, and MRVL begins to push, then see what you can do about taking advantage of this pattern. Remember we don’t need the stock to make it back to the February high at 121.81, and we definitely don’t need to see it at a new all time high above 127.48. All we really need is the stock to push past 92.08 and make the move to 98.00. It will not be an easy move, and it does require cooperation from the broader market. It certainly is worth keeping an eye on though.
 Key News and Probabilities
The big news this week will be the employment report on Friday.
Probabilities for the week are mixed. I think we might have some more buying than what the probabilities are showing.
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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