Friday, 28 February 2025

The Market Just EXPLODED Higher (But The "Volatility Box" Is Still The Key)

February 28, 2025 | Read Online

Don Kaufman here.

I recorded my latest video breakdown RIGHT AS the market was making a critical decision point at 5911 – the exact lower boundary of the volatility box I've been warning about for weeks.

Then something extraordinary happened...

The S&P 500 EXPLODED higher, surging 1.59% into the close to finish at 5,954.50!

But here's what makes this analysis even MORE valuable – I captured the exact moment the market was deciding whether to collapse through the floor of the volatility box or bounce back within it.

This gives you a rare real-time look at how to read these critical signals.

While retail traders are celebrating this dramatic Friday rally, I'm focused on what the volatility metrics are REALLY telling us about what's ahead:

• Why the VIX merely "lifted its head off the pillow" instead of spiking — and what this tells us about REAL market sentiment most traders are missing
• The shocking truth about volatility futures that PROVES we haven't even begun to see real risk (hint: watch for this specific inversion pattern I detail)
• How bonds continued rallying EVEN DURING the equity surge – a warning signal that's hiding in plain sight
• Why the "rip your face off rally" we're seeing might be the most dangerous type of market action
• My exact SPX butterfly trade that just delivered a 254% return in just a few days (the second consecutive week this pattern has hit)
• The bizarre divergence between sectors – with financials hitting all-time highs while tech stocks struggle

Despite Friday's dramatic turnaround, February still closed as the worst month since April 2024 for the Nasdaq (down nearly 4%), with the S&P 500 also declining about 1.4% for the month.

The Trump-Zelenskyy clash that briefly rattled markets is just one more variable in an increasingly complex equation. The REAL question is:

Was this rally the beginning of a new leg higher, or the last gasp before a bigger move down?

WATCH THE FULL ANALYSIS HERE

To your success,
Don Kaufman

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