The Real Driver of Stock Market Gains in 2025 A Note From Amanda: President Trump has said, "We're going to bring back the American Dream... bigger, better, bolder, richer, safer, and stronger than ever before." These days, millions of Americans would tell you the American Dream no longer exists… but as you'll see below, The Oxford Club's Chief Investment Strategist Alexander Green believes it's alive and well. But that's not all... With Republicans controlling both houses and the Fed cutting rates, everything is aligned for even greater growth. In an interview with Bill O'Reilly, Alex reveals details on 6 stocks with the potential to soar under Trump's pro-business policies. Click here to watch now.
 | | Alexander Green
Chief Investment Strategist
The Oxford Club | Since Donald Trump's election three months ago, I have delivered a clear and consistent message to readers. I love his deregulation policies. I love his intended tax cuts. I love his plan to make the U.S. government more efficient. But I don't like his tariffs one bit. A U.S. tariff is a tax paid by American consumers not foreign businesses. (Although those non-U.S. firms can be hurt by lower sales, lower profits, and lower margins.) American tariffs raise prices and stoke inflation, not only increasing the cost of imported goods but allowing domestic companies to raise prices on their own products without losing market share. They also lead to retaliatory actions overseas. (Foreign governments come under immediate pressure to put taxes on U.S. exports in return, potentially sparking a trade war.) That's what happened in 1930 when Congress passed - and President Herbert Hoover signed - the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. It helped create that famous economic downturn known as The Great Depression. The market sold off earlier this month on the realization that Trump isn't just using the threat of tariffs as a bargain chip, as many had hoped. He's set on implementing them. I expect these tariffs will be unpopular - as if Americans are excited about the prospect of paying more for their Samsung TVs, their Toyota sedans, and their Modelo beer - and so damaging to the economy that they will be sharply reduced or even eliminated soon. Tariffs aside, the United States has a secret sauce that others lack: a productivity boom. America's Secret Productivity Boom Americans keep finding ways to get more done at work. And "doing more with less" is the very definition of productivity gains. So far this year, the quarterly productivity of U.S. workers has grown by at least 2% compared with a year earlier. The third quarter was the fifth straight quarter of such growth. And over the past five years, quarterly productivity growth has averaged 2.1%, a sharp improvement from the 10 years prior. The numbers are adjusted for inflation, which means productivity gains don't merely reflect higher prices charged for goods and services. In fact, many businesses are increasing their revenue without passing on higher costs to customers. And - thanks to the policies of the Donald Trump administration - we are well set up for a low-inflation economic boom in 2025. Here's why... Growth Matters Productivity growth is crucial for economic prosperity and improving living standards. And the recent trend has positive implications for wages, prices, and overall economic growth. Here's why productivity gains are essential: - Higher wages. As workers produce more output per hour, companies can afford to pay higher wages without increasing unit labor costs.
- Lower prices. Increased efficiency allows businesses to reduce prices without sacrificing profits. This benefits consumers and improves competitiveness.
- Stronger economic growth. Over the long run, increasing productivity is the main driver of higher living standards.
- Meeting challenges. Productivity growth helps businesses address issues like workforce shortages, inflation, and higher interest rates.
In 2024, U.S. labor productivity grew by 2.3%, outpacing the 1.5% annual increase since 2004. Productivity growth averaged just 1.5% in Europe and 1.8% in Asia. Was our outperformance due to the policies of the Biden administration? (Spoiler alert: No.) The two primary causes are technological advancements and remote work. America's Global Productivity Leadership Corporate investments in automation, equipment, and research and development have boosted efficiency. And the post-pandemic shift to remote and hybrid work has also contributed. "The Great Reshuffling" matched workers with new opportunities, giving them a chance to contribute more and earn more. (Turns out that workers are even more productive at home. Meanwhile, corporations are spending much less on office space.) Companies have also invested in training employees to use new technologies effectively. None of these are the result of any actions taken by the Biden administration. Yet the proposed policies of the Trump administration should give productivity a further boost. Adding Fuel to the Fire Trump has said he would like to cut the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%. That will attract more international businesses to the U.S. It will also give American companies more money to spend on recruitment, wages, new technology, and research and development. Productivity growth will also get a boost from Trump's deregulatory policies. Too many American businesses are hamstrung by overregulation, needless red tape created by unelected bureaucrats. In his first term, Trump was the only modern president to achieve net regulatory reduction. And with Republicans in control of the House and Senate, he is poised to greatly reduce the size and scope of the administrative state. Trump has promised to eliminate 10 regulations for every new one introduced, reducing compliance costs for businesses by billions of dollars annually. (That will also reduce prices for consumers, who pay an estimated $12 trillion annually because of overregulation.) Infrastructure development, in particular, is one of the most highly regulated industries. New projects that once took less than two years to complete now routinely take over 10 years. Trump plans to change that. Saving Time and Money His business-friendly approach will save time and taxpayer dollars. It will also boost profits at many companies by reducing compliance and operating expenses. Trump recently tweeted, "Any person or company investing one billion dollars or more in the United States of America will receive fully expedited approvals and permits... get ready to rock!" That won't hurt growth prospects for 2025 either. In sum, Trump's proposed tax and regulatory policies are a positive sign for the economy. They are likely to result in improved economic growth, higher wages, lower prices, bigger profit margins, and stronger corporate earnings. That, in turn, should lead to higher share prices in 2025. Good investing, Alex P.S. I was just interviewed by legendary journalist Bill O'Reilly. In it, I reveal... - Why Trump's second term could dwarf his first
- What new AI technology could amplify Trump's policies
- How 6 specific stocks could soar under Trump's plan
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