Wednesday, 29 January 2025

Why Buyback Blackouts Ending Matters for Traders

Join me at 9:15 a.m. ET for “Morning Monster”!
 
   
     
FOMC, Tesla, Microsoft and Meta Earnings All Teed up for Wednesday
 
 
The FOMC meeting ends at 2 p.m. ET today, Jan. 29… Are they going to do some sort of rate change? I think anything but a hold will be a big surprise, despite Trump wanting and expecting a cut to rates. 

TSLA, MSFT, and META report earnings AFTER the close - which might end up being a bigger deal!


Come join me as we dive in and see what’s moving!

Plus, as always, we have stocks popping and dropping so come find out what is moving this morning as I look for stocks and do some live premarket analysis on SPX, SPY, NDX, QQQ, Russell, IWM and other stocks that are potential plays for the day. 

 
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Why Buyback Blackouts Ending Matters for Traders

We’re finally crawling out of the buyback blackout period — one of those market mechanics that gets overlooked until it suddenly starts pushing stocks higher. If you’re not paying attention, you should be.

Right now, we’re in that awkward stretch where companies are reporting earnings, but one by one, they’re getting clearance to restart share repurchases. That means we’re about to see a big shift in the market.

During earnings season, companies in the S&P 500 pause their share repurchase programs to avoid any perception of insider trading. This creates a temporary liquidity vacuum — one of the reasons we see more volatility in the weeks leading up to major earnings reports.

Think of it like a faucet that gets turned off at the start of earnings season. Fewer buybacks mean less automatic demand for stocks, which can amplify downside moves.

But here’s the key: That faucet is about to get turned back on.


Why This Matters Now

Companies don’t just trickle back in — they come back in force.

Over the next few weeks, we’re looking at roughly $55 billion per day in rolling five-day average buybacks. That’s a serious amount of capital flowing back into stocks.

This wave of corporate buying tends to act as a tailwind, helping prop up prices. Historically, the market sees stronger performance as buyback activity ramps back up, especially in sectors that rely on repurchases to boost EPS — think Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Health Care.

This week is still choppy, but by early February, we should see some real upward pressure. The biggest names — Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA) — are all reporting earnings, meaning they’ll be exiting their blackout windows soon. Once they do, it’s game on.

Traders should be watching for shifts in momentum, particularly in stocks that have been range-bound during this period. It’s not just about big tech — this impacts the broader market, as systematic buy programs kick in and hedge funds adjust positioning.

The buyback blackout isn’t some obscure, behind-the-scenes event — it’s a market-moving force. When companies start repurchasing shares again, it creates a built-in bid for stocks, adding support and reducing volatility.

And right now? We’re at the turning point. Expect more bullish action as we head into February.


Today’s Daily Chart Setup: Tyler Technologies (TYL)
 
 
This idea came directly from my Daily Chart Setup that automatically signals potential plays. 
 
TYL is a new potential entry. Target: 650.17 Stop below: 557.37
 
TYL has a historical win rate of 74.19%
 
TYL has a profit factor of 9.602
 
TYL trades last 63 trading days on average over 31 trades since 1969.

See the secret behind these signals here!

This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. Always remember that past performance is not indicative of future results.

You can find full details on exactly how this works by scrolling down further in this newsletter. 

Now be sure to join me live at 9:15 a.m. ET for “Morning Monster,” my market-open livestream on YouTube!

 
 
‘Morning Monster’ Is Starting NOW!
I’m also live at 5 p.m. ET on Tuesdays for “30 Minutes of Awesome” — bring your ticker and I’ll analyze it in real time!

And be sure to hit that Subscribe button on my YouTube page!
_____________________________________________________
Today’s NOT Just Another FOMC Meeting…
 
 
It's the Fed's first rate announcement since Trump returned to office, with all the aggressive policy changes we’ve seen the last couple of days… 
 
 
The president is also demanding immediate rate cuts.

That's exactly why I chose today to host my first-ever Trading Power Hour.

At exactly 11:30 a.m. ET today, Jan. 29, you can look over my shoulder to see the breakout stocks right before Fed Chair Jerome Powell takes the stage. 

Using the same algorithmic system that's been delivering a 72% win rate, and today it's picking up some interesting patterns.

With the market on edge about Powell's response to mounting rate-cut pressure, these pre-FOMC setups could be significant.

And while we cannot promise future returns or against losses, if you’d like to see the stocks it’s already flagged, tap here to join me at 11:30 a.m. ET sharp.

 
 
Join Me Here at 11:30 AM ET!
Stated results are from hypothetical options applied to real published trade alerts. From 4/17/24 - 1/27/24 the result was a 72% win rate on  906 trade signals with an average hold time of 3 days on the underlying stock. Performance is not indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk and never risk more than you can afford to lose. 
_____________________________________________________
How the Daily Chart Setup Works
 
 
Here’s a more detailed description of how the pattern triggers:
 
1. The price breaks upward through the orange Market Roadmap Line. 

2. Then the price goes up and down while staying above the line. Eventually, it comes down to touch the line again — this could take days, weeks or even months. 

3. Once it touches the line and starts moving back up, that signals an entry. 

I use Fibonacci levels for for profit targets and stop losses, and these two tools combined have helped me achieve a 77% win rate over the past six-plus years!

You can grab my Market Roadmap Indicator here for just $5 — less than a cup of coffee at most places!
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading

I host my “Morning Monster” livestream at 9:15 a.m. ET each weekday on YouTube, and then “30 Minutes of Awesome” at 5 p.m. ET each Tuesday!

Please check out my channel and hit that Subscribe button!

I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.

I've been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it's the Eagle Scout in me. 


*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. 
   
 

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