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Rising FEAR? The Fear and Greed Index is teetering on "extreme fear." The S&P has barely dropped 5% but the number of stocks above their 200-day moving average has dropped below 50% for the first time since November 2023. Come join me as we dive in and see what’s moving! Plus, as always, we have stocks popping and dropping so come find out what is moving this morning as I look for stocks and do some live premarket analysis on SPX, SPY, NDX, QQQ, Russell, IWM and other stocks that are potential plays for the day. — — — What Traders Should Expect Ahead of Trump’s Inauguration The market is setting up for a fascinating stretch as we approach the presidential inauguration. Historically, this period has been a breeding ground for volatility, and 2025 is shaping up to be no exception. If you missed what happened Friday, here’s a quick look…
And next week, traders are eyeing a potential dip before the inauguration on Jan. 20, followed by a bounce that could set the tone for the rest of the month. First, let’s address the broader setup. Markets have been teetering on edge recently, digesting jobs reports, inflation data, and seasonal quirks like MLK Day, and even a special market closing on Thursday of last week to honor the passing of Jimmy Carter, which has become the custom when we lose former presidents. These factors often work together to create the perfect storm for unpredictable price action. It’s not unusual for markets to consolidate in the days leading up to a key event, only to break in one direction shortly after. The inauguration itself is an important psychological marker. While Jan. 20 is MLK Day, meaning markets are closed, the trading days surrounding it often exhibit increased volatility. This year, with the political climate and economic backdrop, there’s even more reason to expect fireworks... What does this mean for traders? A dip ahead of inauguration week looks increasingly likely. Major indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 appear poised for a leg lower based on technical patterns. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq, in particular, have been flirting with key support levels, and a breakdown could accelerate selling pressure. However, this isn’t a time for panic — it’s a time for preparation. The technicals suggest that if the market does dip, it will likely find support shortly after the inauguration. Key indicators point to a potential bounce as traders look to reposition portfolios for the new political landscape and its economic implications. For example, if the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) breaks below its recent highs from late last year, there’s a high probability — I’d put it at 90% — that it could drop to its roadmap line. This is the area to watch for a potential reversal. Similarly, the Russell 2000 may dip to the 2,100 zone, a level that has historically offered strong support. As traders, our job is to avoid overreacting to short-term noise. Instead, focus on the bigger picture. A dip doesn’t necessarily mean doom and gloom — it can be the reset the market needs to set up for higher highs later. This week is also an options expiration (OPEX) week, the first major one of the year. OPEX weeks are notorious for creating volatility, as traders square off positions, roll contracts and adjust portfolios. Combine that with Monday’s inauguration, and you’ve got a recipe for heightened activity. So, what’s the plan? Keep a close eye on key support levels and watch how price action develops. If the market dips into the inauguration, don’t rush in — let it find its footing. A post-inauguration bounce could provide excellent opportunities for long trades, especially in beaten-down sectors like Tech and Consumer Discretionary. In the meantime, stay patient, stay disciplined and let the market come to you. This is the kind of setup that rewards preparation — and punishes those who try to force trades. Trade smart, and as always, watch out for those false breaks! Today’s Daily Chart Setup: AAR Corp. (AIR) This idea came directly from my Daily Chart Setup that automatically signals potential plays.
You can find full details on exactly how this works by scrolling down further in this newsletter. Now be sure to join me live at 9:15 a.m. ET for “Morning Monster,” my market-open livestream on YouTube! Here’s the deal… Geof will show you how to separate yourself from the herd of traders making a HUGE mistake every day… And I mean all those unfortunate folks who believe a common misconception about trading at the opening bell… Who are costing themselves money and losing trade after trade… day after day. It’s a shame! But when we go LIVE at 1 o’clock, you’ll see that with just one small shift in the timing of your trading, it’s possible to sidestep the HUGE trap traders fall into daily. And although we can’t guarantee results or against losses, I think you’re going to love this briefing… Because Geof will show you his FULL STRATEGY. No gimmicks. No smoke and mirrors. No B.S. Nothing held back! PLUS, you’ll see how this game-changing method could give anyone with $1,000 a chance to target around $200 a few times a week… in as little as two hours or less! To see the LIVE reveal of this strategy, which Geof says is the most important breakthrough of his career… Disclaimer: We make no future earnings claims, and you may lose money. The majority of trades expressed are from historical back tested data in order to demonstrate the potential of the system. The average backtested return per trade (winners and losers included) is 9.38% per trade and a 77.3% win rate with an average winner of 20.77%. Every Starting Gate trade targets roughly $200 in income based on a $1,000 starting stake, and every example is based on that same starting investment unless otherwise stated. We cannot guarantee any specific future results, as there is always a high degree of risk involved in trading. How the Daily Chart Setup Works Here’s a more detailed description of how the pattern triggers: 1. The price breaks upward through the orange Market Roadmap Line. 2. Then the price goes up and down while staying above the line. Eventually, it comes down to touch the line again — this could take days, weeks or even months. 3. Once it touches the line and starts moving back up, that signals an entry. I use Fibonacci levels for for profit targets and stop losses, and these two tools combined have helped me achieve a 77% win rate over the past six-plus years! You can grab my Market Roadmap Indicator here for just $5 — less than a cup of coffee at most places! Jeffry Turnmire Jeffry Turnmire Trading I host my “Morning Monster” livestream at 9:15 a.m. ET each weekday on YouTube, and then “30 Minutes of Awesome” at 5 p.m. ET each Tuesday! Please check out my channel and hit that Subscribe button! I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader. I've been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it's the Eagle Scout in me. *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. |
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