Sunday, 8 December 2024

Is this the pin that pops AI bubble?

Warren Buffett's warning                                                                                                          

I know you won't heed this warning...

Most of you are too caught up in the hype.

And you're blind to the chaos that's coming next... but if I can convince even just one person of the dangers that lie ahead, then I'll consider this a success.

Here goes:

Despite being one of the world's best companies...

Nvidia is staring into the abyss.

While that may seem crazy to say...

Just remember it's collapsed three times before.

The first was in the early 2000s when the dot-com bubble bursting sent Nvidia crashing by almost 90%.

The second was during the Great Financial Crisis when the stock plunged from almost a split-adjusted $1 per share to less than 25 cents.

The third was when the crypto mania peaked in late 2021 and shares collapsed by 65%.

I now believe the fourth big Nvidia crash is coming. And when it arrives, it could drag the entire tech sector down with it, destroying trillions in wealth practically overnight.

Let me unravel everything for you.

THE COMING TECH APOCALYPSE

We're in the midst of the greatest financial bubble of all time...

Like all bubbles, it was created by vast amounts of newly created credit, this time through the 2023 bailout of our banking system.

While the financial system was already running red hot from trillions in Covid spending and Biden's infrastructure boondoggle...

The Fed then created the Bank Term Funding Program to paper over the banking system's $500 billion in losses on their government bonds.

So instead of seeing a reduction in credit while interest rates were rising, the Fed issued more than $164 billion in new credit.

This coincided with the mania around AI. The result was a new financial boom that is equal to the irrational exuberance of the early 2000s...

Of course, most analysts have managed to delude themselves into believing this time it's different.

They claim the valuations of mega-cap stocks isn't as extreme as the dot-com bubble... but the reality is, it's actually far worse:

Analysis from Apollo Capital Management shows the valuations of the 10 top companies are greater than those of the 2000s.

And I don't need to tell you, but these nosebleed numbers are simply not sustainable.

Take Nvidia, for example: it has traded as high as 45-times revenues and 218-times earnings. Even for world-class firms, we know where this ends.

Consider Cisco in the late 90s.

No one came close to its dominance with roughly 75% of the internet traffic going through their routers and infrastructure.

From its February 1990 IPO through to 2000, shares compounded at an incredible 102% per year.

At its peak, Cisco was the largest company in the world, valued at more than $500 billion, roughly 60 times sales.

Even after the bubble burst, it continued to grow with revenues increasing around 10% per year.

There was only one problem: this was a significant deceleration from the 40% growth they experienced between 1995 and 2000.

And when you're valued at 60 times sales, you can't afford even a modest slowdown in growth or lose any market share.

So despite revenues growing 4-fold since 2000... early investors in Cisco have suffered two decades of negative returns.

Like Cisco in the dot-com era...

Nvidia is now "priced for perfection."

Nvidia must execute flawlessly for at least the next decade. Anything less than absolute perfection... any loss of market share... any deceleration in sales will likely lead to massive losses.

Betting on perfection is a fool's errand in any environment, but it's especially foolish at the peak of a colossal financial bubble. A bubble that's hovering inches above several pins.

The exact pin that'll pop the bubble?

There's no way of knowing, but it's coming. And likely very soon.

But while the AI and tech bubble will inevitably pop, there is a bigger technology story unfolding, one that almost nobody is talking about.

I'm not talking about AI... Quantum computing... augmented reality... the blockchain... or anything else you might be thinking of.

No. This is far bigger than them all. In fact...

It's the cornerstone that all our recent technological innovations have been built upon and the future will be built upon too.

Yet you've likely never heard of it before.

Outside of the labs in the world's most prestigious universities and tech companies, almost nobody has.

But those who have... those who can see the writing on the wall... they're investing billions of dollars, as they know this will transform everything.

Marc Andreessen... Ben Horowitz... Elon Musk... Jeff Bezos... Mark Zuckerberg...Jensen Huang... Bill Gates... the list goes on and on.

They know, as I do, that in a few years from now, we will not recognise the world we live in. How we work, live, communicate, transact... it will all be completely upended by what's coming next.

Today, for the first time, I'm going to share it all with you... and I promise you've never heard anything like this before.

You see, despite the magnitude of this story, nobody is openly and freely discussing this technological turning point.

And that deeply concerns me, because I believe its emergence will draw an indelible demarcation line in society.

On one side, you'll have those who understand it, invest in it, and who are greatly enriched by it.

On the other side... you'll have those who turn a blind eye and are impoverished by the sweeping changes it ushers in.

I know what side I'll be on.

And I know what side I want you to be on.

So go here to watch my full investigation into this story.

Including the names of the companies to buy and sell if you want to capitalize on the multi-trillion dollar revolution this technology promises to usher in.

Enjoy,
Porter Stansberry

 


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