Wednesday 18 September 2024

They did it

It’ll be interesting to see what comes next…
 
   
     
   
 
SEPTEMBER 18, 2024
   

Hey y’all,

Short and sweet one here today.

I wanted to wait until the Fed news dropped so that I could give honest feedback on it. 

Then we can put this whole saga to bed for a while and not mention the Fed.

By this morning, investors had started to be pretty convinced of a half-percentage-point rate cut, as momentum had built in that direction over the last couple of days.

As recently as a week ago, I would have told you that was insane

By this morning, when I was chatting with Graham Lindman (you’ll get to see that interview tomorrow) we STILL both thought that Powell, who has usually been pretty hawkish and resistant to pressure from investors, would stick with the “safer” 0.25% rate cut.

But we were wrong…

 
 

Powell went full “Leeroy Jenkins” (google it) and slashed rates by a half point. 

It’s a big gamble that the economy has actually recovered enough to justify this move, that inflation won’t take off like a rocket ship over the coming months. We will see if it pays off.

The markets are certainly ecstatic, as I predicted they would be. I thought a 0.50 point rate cut was the only way the markets shot higher after the news, and that’s exactly what we’ve gotten.

Here’s what that looks like on the five minute chart on QQQ, pulled about 2:20 as I’m writing this:

 
 

Pretty easy to see where the news dropped there. 

The big question for most investors is: now what? 

The immediate excitement will fizzle out by the end of the week, and Wall Street will likely turn to the next inflection point: the election.

We can start the drama all over again.

But I wouldn’t assume that it’s all sunshine and daisies until then. I’m not as convinced as the Fed seems to be about the economy, and I’m not sure investors are, either.

There will be a temporary sugar high, but I’d look for more downside pressure before too long. As I’ve said, I think the markets will pretty much channel sideways until the election. I could be wrong, but that’s what I’d expect if I had to make a prediction (and I guess I just did).

There will still be tons of opportunity, though, don’t fret.

On that note, make sure you check out my interview with Graham tomorrow, because he also shares a few sectors you’ll definitely want to pay attention to now that rates have been slashed.

To your prosperity,

Stephen 

P.S.: If you didn’t catch it, I joined Jack Carter earlier this week to talk about 10 specific rate-cut tickers HE’S focused on. You’ll definitely want to check this out.

 
   
 

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