How soft is a soft landing？

Expectations are too high already

View in browser

View in browser

SEPTEMBER 12, 2024       Hey y’all, I’ve talked recently about my fears over the next Federal Reserve meetings, which take place next week on the 17th and 18th.  I worry that expectations are out of balance. I think a 0.25% rate cut is already priced into the market, but many traders expect a big bounce from that news. And my true concern is that anything less than a 0.50% rate cut, which I still view as unlikely, will result in negative pressure in the market. We see this kind of trap a lot — recently, NVDA reported stellar earnings. But because they weren’t supercalafragalisticexpialadoshus earnings, the markets sold off.   If expectations are set too high and then disappointed, we can see some really disastrous fallout in the market — both because of the resultant selloff and then the ensuing panic-selling from all the traders who went long and got caught short. This is something to be very careful about next week. But I think the potential ramifications extend much further than that.  Right now, if we glance at the Fed Rate Futures expectations, I see a worrying picture…   Right now, conditional meeting probabilities are pricing in the potential of NINE rate cuts between this year’s September meetings and next.  Of course, most mainstream traders are not thinking that far out. But institutions are. And clearly, many investors see at least a path to a consistently healing economy over the next year, with rate cuts coming along the way. I don’t know that we’re there right now. Initial rate cuts hardly ensure that future rate cuts are coming. Chairman Powell and the Fed will still have to consider other economic indicators. Inflation is high, and unemployment is growing…   I’m not saying the economy is in disaster mode by any means. A soft landing seems genuinely possible. But that doesn’t mean we’re going to have an uninterrupted path of progress. And the fact that people are pricing in a linear return to earth concerns me. It might not mean anything. But it’s something I have my eye on right now. To your prosperity, Stephen Ground Editor-in-Chief, ProsperityPub P.S. Whether the Fed cuts rates a quarter point, a half point or not at all, Nate Tucci tells us the Fed meeting will create market volatility regardless — and he’s going LIVE today at 3:30pm Eastern to show us how he plans to harness that volatility! Register your spot now!

SEPTEMBER 12, 2024 Hey y’all,   I’ve talked recently about my fears over the next Federal Reserve meetings, which take place next week on the 17th and 18th.    I worry that expectations are out of balance. I think a 0.25% rate cut is already priced into the market, but many traders expect a big bounce from that news.   And my true concern is that anything less than a 0.50% rate cut, which I still view as unlikely, will result in negative pressure in the market.   We see this kind of trap a lot — recently, NVDA reported stellar earnings. But because they weren’t supercalafragalisticexpialadoshus earnings, the markets sold off.   If expectations are set too high and then disappointed, we can see some really disastrous fallout in the market — both because of the resultant selloff and then the ensuing panic-selling from all the traders who went long and got caught short.   This is something to be very careful about next week. But I think the potential ramifications extend much further than that.    Right now, if we glance at the Fed Rate Futures expectations, I see a worrying picture…   Right now, conditional meeting probabilities are pricing in the potential of NINE rate cuts between this year’s September meetings and next.    Of course, most mainstream traders are not thinking that far out. But institutions are.   And clearly, many investors see at least a path to a consistently healing economy over the next year, with rate cuts coming along the way.   I don’t know that we’re there right now.   Initial rate cuts hardly ensure that future rate cuts are coming. Chairman Powell and the Fed will still have to consider other economic indicators. Inflation is high, and unemployment is growing…   I’m not saying the economy is in disaster mode by any means. A soft landing seems genuinely possible.   But that doesn’t mean we’re going to have an uninterrupted path of progress. And the fact that people are pricing in a linear return to earth concerns me.   It might not mean anything.   But it’s something I have my eye on right now.   To your prosperity,   Stephen Ground Editor-in-Chief, ProsperityPub   P.S. Whether the Fed cuts rates a quarter point, a half point or not at all, Nate Tucci tells us the Fed meeting will create market volatility regardless — and he’s going LIVE today at 3:30pm Eastern to show us how he plans to harness that volatility! Register your spot now!

ABOUT US:  We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions.  Please visit https://prosperitypub.com/terms-conditions/ for our full Terms and Conditions. Unsubscribe This email was sent to phanxuanhoa60.trade1357@blogger.com by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States Prosperity Pub

ABOUT US:  We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions.  Please visit https://prosperitypub.com/terms-conditions/ for our full Terms and Conditions.   Unsubscribe This email was sent to phanxuanhoa60.trade1357@blogger.com by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States Prosperity Pub