Thursday, 29 August 2024

Trading is annoying

Adventures in NVDA part 2…
 
   
     
   
 
AUGUST 29, 2024
   
Hey y’all,

One of the things we preach all the time at ProsperityPub is having a thick skin.

There can and will be losses in trading, so you should never risk more than you can afford to lose. It’s important that we say that, because it’s true.

But it never quite feels that way when things are going good, right?

If you’ve won a couple trades in a row, if your account is steadily increasing, if you’re feeling great about what you’re doing, it’s easy to fall into the trap of thinking, “man, this is easy! I’m gonna get rich with trading!”

And maybe you will! Obviously, our goal at ProsperityPub is to help folks find those proven edges that really can make a huge difference over time.

But when the other shoe drops, and that maxim we repeat so often becomes reality… it can really sting. Even for those of us who do this professionally! 

So let’s talk about NVDA…

Last night, NVDA reported earnings, as we’ve been talking about, and everything was great.

They reported July quarter revenue of more than $30 billion, an increase of 122% from last year, which was the fourth straight quarter of triple-digit revenue growth on record.

They also raised future guidance, and even announced a stock buyback. It’s about as good an earnings report as any company can offer! 

And then, the stock plummeted…

 
 
(Hang that in the Louvre. I’m basically Banksy.) 

There was no rational reason to dump shares of NVDA after their earnings call, but it happened anyway.

Nate Tucci said a couple of times yesterday that he thought NVDA’s report would be a good barometer for whether people were looking for excuses to sell the market or buy the market. I guess we have our answer.

Now, I joined Nate, Graham Lindman, and Lance Ippolito for their LIVE “Trade The Close” session yesterday, and I jumped into a bullish NVDA position because I love this company. Even though I feared exactly this scenario might play out.

And I got burned. Obviously.

Because NVDA is such a big fish, though, it also dragged down my trade on the QQQ, which is looking likely to be a loser, too.

I’ve taken a couple of other positions on the chin in recent weeks, meaning my little account, that I was so proud of growing 3-4x in a few months, isn’t looking quite so robust these days.

But it’s an important lesson: 

You really do have to have a thick skin when trading. You have to endure the losses and remember the net positives. If your account is growing over time, you have to weather the setbacks and keep trading! 

And also, and maybe more important, always remember: the markets are irrational. Trying to read the tea leaves of fundamentals feels about as smart right now as going pole vaulting in a lightning storm.

 
 
Ok, ChatGPT made that look a lot cooler than it should have.

But if you try to do it, you’re probably not gonna look like a superhero. You’re probably gonna look like burnt toast.

I hope you all avoided any of the NVDA fallout. Maybe you were smarter than me and even went bearish. If so, congrats!

If not, well, we’re all in this together. And who knows… as I write this, NVDA is trying to rally already. Perhaps common sense will prevail… but I’m not holding my breath…

To your prosperity,

Stephen Ground
ProsperityPub Editor-in-Chief 
   
 

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