Wednesday, 21 August 2024

An interesting ticker to target

And it’s one of my favorite retailers too
 
   
     
   
 
AUGUST 21, 2024
   
Hey y’all,

You might not know this about me, but I… LOVE… Target.

I’m sorry, but there’s just something about walking through those sliding red doors that gives me a sense of peace… of serenity… of knowing that I’m going to buy too many things I don’t need at prices I could get cheaper elsewhere.

Seriously, though, I love it in there. 

And I’m not alone. In fact, a recent YouGov poll determined that Target is the second most popular department store, as ranked by a “positive opinion” amongst respondents. It falls behind only Costco, and ahead of its archrival Walmart.

 
 
That’s a pretty impressive recovery. Because about 15 months ago, Target was in the doghouse.

You might remember that Target got in hot, hot water with conservatives last May with their Pride Month offerings.

No need to relitigate that here, except to say that the stock took a huge nose dive after the controversy.

 
 
In the immortal words of Kevin McAllister: “WOOF!” 

That’s not a pretty stock chart.

But today, TGT reported increased same-store sales for the first time since 2022 and revenue surged 2.7%, smashing analysts expectations.

That brought the stock back even with pre-controversy levels.

 
 
But how much higher could Target go? 

It’s easy to see recent highs on that chart towards $175, which would represent a nearly 10% increase. Those levels feel easily reachable on the back of strong earnings news.

But if you broaden the lens out, there might be more at play here.

Before the boycott crisis last May, TGT had been on a steady downtrend since earnings the May prior (2022).

Back then, share prices fell almost 30% on an earnings miss after 13 consecutive quarters of earnings beats. All-time highs were around $240, but the pre-earnings level sat just about $210.

If TGT can get above and stay above recent highs near $175, then those 2022 levels are the next obvious “target” (no pun intended. Well… kinda intended)...

 
 
Coming off the back of a strong earnings report and with back to school, Halloween, and Christmas shopping all still in play for future quarters, I would think a rebound to those levels is very much in play for TGT.

Currently, its market cap is a fraction of its top competitors in Costco (COST)  and Walmart (WMT) and its P/E Ratio is far healthier.

 
COST: 54.66
WMT: 39.10
TGT: 18.05

Of course, you should take my opinion with a grain of salt. This is coming straight from me, not one of our many talented and much more experienced experts :) 

But Target is definitely a company I’ll be keeping a close eye on the rest of the year and into Q1 2025. I will probably add some shares and might look for some opportunities to play calls and wrap orders around earnings.

After all, somebody’s gotta pay for the 18 unnecessary holiday decorations I’ll buy over the next few months…

To your prosperity,

Stephen Ground
ProsperityPub Editor-in-Chief

P.S.: If you want some more picks that do come from one of our experts, you should catch Jack Carter’s latest briefing! He shared the top pick from his 10 AM Income Project for free! 
   
 

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