Hey y’all,
I’ve been thinking a lot about the election over the past week. Haven’t we all?
And no, I’m not going to tell you who I think you should vote for.
But I do think I have some worthwhile perspective to offer. I’ve spent my life thinking about politics, since I was four or five years old, driving around St. Louis County putting up political yard signs ahead of elections (my dad was the chairman of his party for most of my childhood!)
I also interned two summers at the STL County Election Board, and I spent one summer interning with a Congressman, plus I got a bachelor's in Political Science from a great Missouri school — so I think it’s fair to say I’ve really studied this stuff.
So with that in mind, I thought I’d give a few thoughts on where we’re at and where we might be going…
Because the moment we’re in is unprecedented.
Even the fabled 1968 election, when LBJ refused the nomination of his party for reelection, is not truly analogous to this in any way — for one thing, LBJ announced he wouldn’t seek another term in MARCH, not late July.
But don’t forget the bigger picture…
We’ve seen the entire shape and face of this election change THREE times in less than a month.
The infamous debate, where President Biden fell apart, effectively ending his candidacy and his political career? That was June 27th, which isn’t yet a full month ago.
Since then, we’ve had a (thankfully) failed assassination attempt on the leading Republican candidate, which gave birth to what will become one of the most iconic photos in American history should he be reelected…
 And, this past weekend, we had the shocking (even if not totally surprising) news that President Biden would be dropping out of the race and offering his support to Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee.
While we may never know everything that went on behind the scenes over the past week or two, with the news this morning that the Obamas have thrown their support behind VP Harris, there is no question that she will now be the nominee and Trump’s opponent in November.
Take a minute to catch your breath… I haven’t even started on my thoughts on what comes next, because we needed that much time just to recap what’s already happened! Now, as of today, July 26, I think there are three really important things to remember about this election, especially when it comes to the markets… let’s run through them quickly: (1) It is way (WAY) too early to judge this election Yes, the election is 101 days away.
But we also have an entirely new election. And we (technically) don’t have a ticket for the Democratic Party as of now. We definitely don’t have a Democrat VP pick yet.
(My guess, for what it’s worth, is that it’ll be Mark Kelly, the Senator from Arizona. He’s in a battleground state, he appears moderate to the naked eye, he’s an astronaut, which is an incredible backstory, and I think the Obamas like him. I would probably pick Josh Shapiro from Pennsylvania if I was VP Harris, but I think he will be the runner up for a few reasons) With all that in mind, it’s WAY too early to draw big conclusions about this race, other than very, very generic ones.
VP Harris will get a bump, just like former President Trump got a bump from the convention. But only time will tell what this election settles into.
(2) Wall Street Doesn’t Hate Democrats…
Or Republicans… it Hates Uncertainty
This is key: Wall Street isn’t blue, or red. It’s “green” (Nate insisted I say that)...
Billionaires and power brokers fall on both sides of the aisle politically, especially in this election.
Trump has some very vocal supporters in the likes of Elon Musk and Bill Ackman, and he’s opened a lane for “Trump-curious” people to start speaking up a little, including Mark Zuckerberg of META, who recently spoke positively of the former President’s performance after the attempt on his life.
But, of course, there are plenty of LOUD Democrats, liberals, and outright leftists on Wall Street and in the billionaire class. The Soros family fits that bill. Warren Buffett is a self-described Democrat and will likely quietly support VP Harris. Mark Cuban hasn’t been afraid to make his opinions known (heck, some even think he could be on the ticket!)  So it’s a misnomer to think that Wall Street prefers either side to win. What they hate is uncertainty.
And the good news is, there’s really no uncertainty in this election.
Trump is possibly the most “known commodity” in the history of planet Earth at this point, and has previously served as President for four years. Wall Street knows exactly what they’ll get from him.
And while Republicans will almost certainly try to paint VP Harris as a shadow, unknown figure from the radical Left, Wall Street is smart enough to know that if she is elected, she will probably largely pursue policies similar to those of the current administration, of which she is a major part. They might not like those policies, but they know those policies. There is no “unknown” they have to prepare for.
Unless…
(3) Pay Close Attention to the Congressional Makeup
The one situation that could change things for Wall Street (and I think it is unlikely) is a so-called “blue wave” where Democrats take control of all three chambers of government.
Now, early in the Biden Administration, Democrats did control the White House and both chambers of Congress. But centrist Democrat senators Joe Manchin (who is retiring and whose seat will go red in November) and Kyrsten Sinema (who has since declared “Independent”) prevented some of the more radical proposed moves by the Left.
 In his farewell address this week, President Biden tipped his hand on one of the more radical policies in the Harris agenda, what he euphemistically called “Supreme Court reform.”
That policy alone might not frighten Wall Street, but it points to a willingness to make sweeping changes that could affect investors in other ways.
It’s worth keeping an eye on…
But the truth is, it’s unlikely. Whether or not Democrats can retain the White House, the Senate map is very unfavorable to them, and the House is already Republican-controlled, albeit by a razor-thin majority.
It would take a lot to change that. And while VP Harris might have the momentum now, there is a LOT of time left before November.
The election has completely changed three different times in the last 30 days. Who knows what could happen in the next 100??
I’ll keep talking about it if you’re interested. Let me know! I’ll post a video on the ProsperityPub Telegram today asking if you liked this newsletter. If you’ll give it a thumbs up or another reaction to let me know you want to see more of this, that’ll help me create better content for you!
Hope you’re doing well and have a great weekend!
Stephen Ground
Editor-in-Chief, ProsperityPub |
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