Monday, 8 July 2024

The Future of Shopping… or a Wasteland of Price Gouging?

WEN and WMT test new ways to change prices fast
 
   
     
   
 
JULY 8, 2024
   
PROSPERITY PUB MARKET TALK
The Future of Shopping… or a Wasteland of Price Gouging?
 
 
So-called “surge pricing” or “dynamic pricing” has had a place in certain sectors of business for decades.

For example, it’s no secret that airlines and hotels have, for decades, adjusted their prices based on demand, with busier times and areas costing more.

More recently, companies like Uber and Lyft have popularized the concept by changing the price of a ride based on real-time demand.

But if companies like Walmart and Wendy's have their say, the day is soon coming where you'll pay more for bottled water on a hot day or more for a burger during the lunchtime rush.

Earlier this year, the two companies announced new initiatives that would allow them to change prices dynamically.

In the case of Walmart, they are testing out new electronic shelf labels that can be updated as often as several times per minute. The company says the technology not only allows for rapid price changes but also enhances productivity by reducing the time employees spend manually updating prices. 

According to Phil Lempert, a grocery industry analyst, these electronic labels can provide additional product information via barcodes, further enhancing the shopping experience for customers.

Dynamic pricing at Wendy's would be implemented via digital menu boards.

The company claims these boards "could allow us to change the menu offerings at different times of day and offer discounts and value offers to our customers more easily, particularly in the slower times of day."

Importantly, Wendy's claims that it does not plan to implement surge pricing in the traditional sense, where prices rise during peak demand times — for example higher burger prices during a lunchtime rush.

Despite these reassurances, it's hard to see why a company would completely overhaul its menu boards without at least an eye towards increasing its profits.

Critics, including Senator Elizabeth Warren, are calling the initiatives "price gouging."

One of the main criticisms is that these companies could easily raise prices during peak periods, fattening their profit margins while their costs remain the same — and the consumer is the one that loses out.

The backlash has been significant, with both companies receiving criticism online and in the halls of Congress. Consumers and lawmakers are concerned that dynamic pricing could lead to higher costs for everyday essentials, particularly during high-demand periods. 

This could be seen as unfair, especially for those on tight budgets who rely on predictable pricing — and especially for a country already battered by years of post-pandemic inflation.

Walmart and Wendy's argue that the primary benefit of these technologies is increased efficiency and the ability to offer more targeted discounts — while analysts have pointed to the benefits of ensuring consistency between online and in-store pricing, rather than exploiting peak demand periods.

As these initiatives roll out, it remains to be seen how consumers will react to price fluctuations that can appear arbitrary or opaque. The success or failure of these tests could significantly impact how other retailers and restaurants approach pricing in the future.

Meanwhile, for two companies that are pursuing such similar initiatives, the stock performance of Wendy’s (WEN) and Walmart (WMT) could not be more different.

Over the past 5 years, WMT has surged nearly 105% — and is currently at all time highs.

Meanwhile, Wendy’s stock has languished in a sideways-to-down pattern where it currently sits at nearly 14% below its value in summer 2019.

 
 
According to trend trader, Jack Carter, WMT has been in a bullish trend since the end of last year.

It experienced a bit of soft sideways action for about six weeks from April to May, but with the stock currently sitting at all time highs, it’s worth a look.

As Jack always reminds us, when a stock hits new all time highs, that’s the perfect place to spot a stock that can be used to create income with naked puts, covered calls or even spreads, though in a perfect scenario, he would love to see an unbroken, longer term trend.

Just make sure to steer clear of WEN.


— The Prosperity Pub Team
 
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TUCCI'S TWO CENTS
When Diversification is Di-WORSE-ification
 

If you have been listening to me for any length of time, you’ve probably heard me bash traditional “diversification”...

I don’t lament how poorly mainstream finance has treated average people just for the sake of it; I really believe there are better options (no pun intended) out there and I hate how many people are years — or even decades — behind by doing “the right thing.”

Today, I wanted to give you a practical, real-world example of why I often challenge the traditional investment strategy of diversification. 

Earlier this year, my younger brother, Daniel, was sitting on $48k in cash, unsure of how to invest it and asked me what he should do if he wants to invest it for the long term. In fact, he had been sitting on the money for about a year.

After a little brotherly shaming for sitting on cash while inflation erodes his dollars, I laid out two options for him…

One was the conventional 60/40 mix of mutual funds and bonds, which typically yields a 6-8% return but isn’t immune to bear markets…

The other was a more aggressive strategy focusing on 15 to 20 of the top-performing stocks, betting on their continued market outperformance.

Now, obviously, my strong bias that the first option is a bad one came through as I laid out the options and I probably applied some pressure to go with what I strongly believe is a better route for buy and hold investors: Buy and hold strength.

He decided to do just that and I gave him 19 stocks I had vetted as strong performers. He spread out the $48k just about evenly across those 19 stocks and decided he would forego traditional “diversification” and bet that the top stocks would continue to be the stop stocks for the medium and long term (remember, just because those are the 19 I gave him now, doesn’t mean they can’t change a year or 5 years from now).


I hadn’t even realized it had been 6 months until he texted me this pic…

— Nate Tucci
   
 

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