Friday, 12 July 2024

Now for Something We Can All Get Behind

only pizza and THIS ONE THING can unite the country
 
   
     
   
 
JULY 12, 2024
   
PROSPERITY PUB MARKET TALK
Now for Something We Can All Get Behind
 

If we told you that a survey recently showed that 86% of respondents agree with the question, what would you guess the question is?

Probably the only thing 86% of people can agree on is that pizza for dinner sounds delicious.

So it might surprise you to hear that the survey had nothing to do with food and everything to do with politics. Or more accurately: politicians.

A recent survey by the University of Maryland's School of Public Policy showed overwhelming bipartisan support for prohibiting Members of Congress, as well as the President, Vice President, and Supreme Court Justices, from trading individual stocks.

At a time when our country seems so divided on so many issues, it's refreshing to see we can all come together to agree on something that is just plain common sense.

I mean, how many sports do you know where the referees are allowed to bet on the teams they're regulating?

Examples of questionable trades by members of Congress have been making headlines for years.

Right before COVID became public knowledge, several members of Congress dumped their stocks, avoiding significant losses as the markets crashed.

There are even websites that track Democratic Senator Nancy Pelosi's trades, showing how much those trades have outperformed the market. Pelosi and her husband have been noted for their timely trades, raising eyebrows about potential insider trading.

And it's not just Pelosi — this issue cuts across party lines.

In 2020, Republican Senator Richard Burr sold off up to $1.72 million of his holdings following closed-door briefings on the coronavirus, just before the market took a nosedive.

Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler also faced scrutiny for dumping stocks after a private briefing on the virus and the effects it might have on the economy. These examples highlight a pattern where those with insider knowledge seem to have an unfair advantage in the stock market.

The proposal to ban members of Congress from trading individual stocks aims to restore some integrity to the system. It's about ensuring that those who make the rules aren't also profiting from them in ways that regular citizens cannot.

With such broad public support, it seems like a no-brainer.

Yet, the challenge up till now has been that the people making the rules don’t seem to want to make rules that apply to them.

In fairness, it’s been said many times that insider trading laws already exist. The problem is that Members of Congress seem to very obviously trade with insider information and on the rare occasions when they face scrutiny, the investigations are closed and those same politicians are cleared of wrongdoing.

The push to prohibit members of Congress from trading stocks isn't just about fairness; it's about trust.

In a time when faith in government is low, taking steps to eliminate conflicts of interest could be a significant step towards rebuilding that trust.

After all, ensuring that our leaders are held to the same standards as everyone else is something we can all get behind — just like pizza for dinner.

— The Prosperity Pub Team

 
 
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SCOTT WELSH’S TICKER TALES
Friday Great Value Trade (TQQQ)
 

Tech doesn’t go on sale very often.

In fact, it seems like an eternity since NVDA and the Nasdaq were at a “fair” price.

But it wasn’t really that long ago.

Starting in 2022 and lasting through December 2023, the TQQQ (the highly-leveraged Nasdaq ETF) was under “fair value”.

In other words, it was under the 800 simple moving average. 

Here’s the chart:

 
 

Any time before January 2024 would have been a chance to buy TQQQ “on sale”. 

But let’s say we missed it. Or we were scared tech was in trouble.

Let’s say we bought it right at the SMA in December 2023. 
We still would’ve done great. 

Buying at the arrow would have been an entry around $43.

What happened?

It’s now over $80. 

And buying earlier would have been even better.

The takeaway? 

Try to buy tech stocks near the SMA. Doing so gives us a chance for big wins.

Happy trading,
— Scott Welsh

P.S. As a reminder, these plays are based on my longer-term Weinstein Stage Analysis method. The charts above use weekly candles and a 30 week simple moving average. For details on this method, see my explanation on this Ask The Pros episode starting at timestamp 20:45.
   
 

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